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New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary: Margin of Victory
polymarket

What will the margin of victory be?

Volume:
$14,203

Pappas 30–35%

 - Polymarket

Pappas 30–35% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 24, 2026

Closed: Sep 24, 1:54 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Pappas 30–35%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,611
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Pappas 40%+

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,587
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Pappas 15–20%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,518
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Pappas 25–30%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,500
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Pappas 20–25%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,338
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Pappas 0–5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,112
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Pappas 5–10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,059
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Pappas 10–15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,051
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Manzur 5%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$957
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Pappas 35–40%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$953
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Manzur 0–5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$518
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

The New Hampshire Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate is scheduled to be held on September 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the New Hampshire Secretary of State, https://www.sos.nh.gov/.

Polymarket

The New Hampshire Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate is scheduled to be held on September 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the New Hampshire Secretary of State, https://www.sos.nh.gov/.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the New Hampshire Senate primary tracks the probabilities of different margin of victory outcomes. You can view the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $14,203, with $7,858 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of each possible result in the primary, offering insights beyond traditional polling data. It’s a dynamic representation of collective prediction regarding the New Hampshire Senate primary.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a nuanced view compared to simple polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of stated preferences, this market aggregates informed speculation about voter turnout, strategic voting, and potential late-breaking developments. Discrepancies can arise if traders believe polls are inaccurate or don't fully account for these factors. A significant difference between the market’s implied probability and polling data might suggest traders anticipate an outcome that deviates from conventional wisdom regarding the New Hampshire Senate primary. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming an opinion.

This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official margin of victory declared by relevant election authorities for the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary. The final result will be determined by the difference in votes received by the winning and losing candidates. Traders will be able to claim their winnings based on the accuracy of their predictions regarding the final margin of victory in the New Hampshire Senate primary.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Sep 8, 2026. Major endorsements from influential figures, significant fundraising announcements, or unexpected shifts in the political landscape could all cause price fluctuations. Debates among the candidates, particularly if they reveal clear strengths or weaknesses, are also likely to move the market. Additionally, any polling data releases showing substantial changes in voter preferences could influence trader behavior. Unexpected events, such as a candidate dropping out, would also likely cause a rapid reassessment of probabilities for the New Hampshire Senate primary.