TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 65%
- Kalshi
At least 65% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 21, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Sep 21, 4:57 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks Chris Pappas's performance in the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by measuring the share of votes he receives against all valid ballots cast. The outcome depends on whether his vote percentage meets or exceeds specific thresholds ranging from 45% to 70%. Results are determined solely by official, certified tallies after all voting processes conclude.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the certified percentage of votes Chris Pappas receives in the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary, calculated as (votes for Pappas ÷ total valid votes) × 100. Each market has a distinct threshold: 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, or 70%, and resolves to Yes if Pappas’s percentage falls within or above that range, inclusive of both endpoints. The percentage is rounded to the specified decimal places and derived exclusively from official, certified results—preliminary counts, invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded. If the election uses multiple rounds (e.g., ranked-choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if unspecified. Write-in votes are counted if included in certified results.
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official primary results are verified against credible public sources. The final vote percentage will be compared against the market’s defined thresholds to determine which contracts settle ‘yes’ or ‘no’. Resolution occurs shortly after all ballots are counted and reported, ensuring the market closes based on authoritative, widely accepted data.
Key events that could shift this market include final pre-primary polls, candidate debate performance, last-minute endorsements, campaign financing disclosures, and any controversy or misstep by the candidates. Unexpected developments — such as polling surges, viral social media moments, or logistical issues on election day — often cause rapid repricing. Traders will also watch for shifts in betting volume, which can signal changing sentiment in the days ahead of Jan 1, 2027.
