TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Nevada Governor Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Who will win the Nevada Governor election?

Total volume:
$1,871,573
Volume 24h:
$141,170
401%
Liquidity:
$523,951
24%
Open interest:
$692,122
1%

Democrat

all

3 markets

Polymarket

Predict

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 2, 2027

Time left: 20d:00h:24m

Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?

53%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 54¢ buys you 185 shares | Odds: 53% Total Payout: $185 | Net Profit: $85 Multiplier: 1.85x | ROI: 85% APY not meaningful 20 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Democrat

Trade
53%
1%
Yes 54¢No 48¢
2¢
$150,340
$233,100
17%
23%
N/A
2w 6d
active
predict

Aaron Ford (D)

Trade
53%
1%
Yes 54.7¢No 49¢
3.7¢
$108,315
$247
0%
0%
N/A
2w 6d
active
kalshi

Democratic party

Trade
52%
Yes 52¢No 49¢
1¢
N/A
$961,669
0.02%
5%
$462,998
2mo 2w 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
52.2%
Yes 53.6¢No 48.7¢
Avg: 2.2¢Max: 3.7¢
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
49%
1%
Yes 49¢No 52¢
1¢
N/A
$488,279
20%
24%
$229,124
2mo 2w 5d
active
polymarket

Republican

Trade
48%
Yes 48¢No 53¢
1¢
$170,533
$186,464
14%
16%
N/A
2w 6d
active
predict

Joe Lombardo (R)

Trade
48%
2%
Yes 49¢No 54¢
3¢
$94,763
$1,812
2%
2%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
48.6%
Yes 48.7¢No 53¢
Avg: 1.7¢Max: 3¢
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks which party will win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election. Currently, the consensus probability favors a Democratic win at 53.0%, while the Republican party is at 49.0%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict, with resolution determined by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if no consensus). The outcome will be settled based on who is officially declared the winner of the election, and traders should watch the primary elections scheduled throughout 2026 for early signals of candidate strength.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms align on resolving to the officially declared winner of the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election, using the same primary sources and fallback mechanism.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if no consensus)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the candidate who wins the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election.
  • Resolution is based on the declaration of the winner by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
  • If the three sources do not agree, the official certification of the election results will be used.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: In the extremely unlikely event of a tie, the official certification process will determine the winner, and the market will resolve accordingly.
  • Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws before the election, markets referencing that candidate will likely be canceled or adjusted, depending on the platform's policies. The remaining markets will resolve as normal.
  • Independent Candidate Victory: An independent candidate winning will resolve 'Other' markets to Yes, and all Democrat/Republican markets to No.
Timing: The market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or upon official certification of the election results.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on which party's representative is inaugurated as governor of Nevada following the 2026 election. The market will resolve to Yes for whichever party achieves this outcome through the election process.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probabilities of different outcomes in the Nevada Governor election. It aggregates data from both platforms to provide a consensus view of the market's expectations. Currently, the combined volume across both venues is $1,871,573, with $141,170 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of how traders are pricing the likelihood of various candidates winning the race. The dashboard reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd, offering a dynamic forecast for the election.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those preferences. This can lead to divergences, as market prices incorporate not just who is currently favored, but also information about the perceived uncertainty and potential for shifts in momentum. Historically, prediction markets have demonstrated a strong track record of accuracy, often outperforming polls, particularly in close races. However, it’s important to remember that both represent different forms of data and can be valuable when considered together.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can differ due to a variety of factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity levels, all of which can influence price discovery. Furthermore, the specific market structures and fee schedules on each platform might attract different types of traders. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? at 53.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nevada at 52.0%. These differences highlight the independent price discovery process occurring on each venue.

This market resolves around Jan 2, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which candidate is officially declared the winner of the Nevada Governor election by the relevant election authorities. The market’s outcome will reflect the official results, providing a clear and objective determination of the winner. This ensures a transparent and reliable resolution process for all participants in this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Jan 2, 2027. Major endorsements, significant fundraising announcements, and unexpected developments in the candidates' campaigns could all shift trader sentiment. Polling data releases, especially those indicating a substantial change in voter preferences, would also likely cause price movements. Debates and public appearances by the candidates represent key catalysts, as they provide opportunities for voters to assess their platforms and leadership qualities. Any unforeseen events, such as scandals or major policy announcements, could also influence the outcome of this market.