This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on September 21, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on September 21, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Netflix stock market tracks the current odds of the stock closing up or down on September 21. You’ll find a price history showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $416. Total volume for this market is $435. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to Netflix’s performance.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for Netflix. While analysts often provide price targets and ratings, this market represents a collective forecast from a diverse group of traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, risk tolerance, and interpretations of market signals. It's important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on fundamental analysis, while this market reflects a more real-time assessment of potential price movements.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Netflix stock will close higher or lower on September 21. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. Higher demand for shares betting on an increase in stock price will drive up their price, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market efficiently incorporates new information and reflects the collective wisdom of traders.

This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Netflix stock on September 21 will be compared to the opening price to determine whether it closed up or down. The market will then settle based on this verified price change. Traders holding shares on the winning side will receive a payout, while those on the losing side will forfeit their stake.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Sep 21, 2026. Key catalysts include earnings reports, major news announcements concerning Netflix’s subscriber growth, content releases, and broader economic indicators impacting the tech sector. Unexpected regulatory changes or competitive pressures could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, any significant shifts in overall market risk appetite or investor confidence in growth stocks could lead to substantial price fluctuations in this market.

Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on September 21?

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