This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on June 30, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on June 30, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Netflix stock price movement market dashboard displays real-time odds for whether NFLX will close higher or lower on June 30, 2026. Traders can monitor the current price of each outcome, historical price movements, and recent trading activity to gauge market sentiment. The dashboard reflects the collective prediction of participants as they buy and sell shares tied to each outcome, offering a live snapshot of how the market is pricing Netflix's directional movement on that specific date.

Prediction markets and traditional analyst forecasts approach stock direction differently. While equity analysts typically issue price targets and ratings based on fundamental research and models, this market aggregates real-money bets from traders who stand to gain or lose based on the actual outcome. Prediction market odds often incorporate forward-looking sentiment and tail-risk pricing that may diverge from consensus analyst views, making them a complementary signal rather than a direct substitute for professional equity research.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker (AMM) system. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome—Netflix up or down—has a price between 0 and 1 (or 0% to 100%), reflecting the probability implied by recent trades. As more capital flows into one outcome, its price rises and the competing outcome falls, ensuring the market continuously reprices based on new information and trader conviction.

This market resolves around Jun 30, 2026, once the trading window closes and Netflix's stock price movement can be verified. The outcome is determined by comparing NFLX's closing price on that date to its opening price, with the result confirmed against credible public financial data. Traders who backed the correct direction receive their payout, while those on the losing side forfeit their stake.

Netflix earnings reports, subscriber growth announcements, content performance metrics, and broader market sentiment shifts can all influence this market. Macroeconomic factors—interest rate decisions, tech sector rotation, and consumer spending trends—may also sway traders' directional bets. Additionally, company-specific catalysts such as management changes, strategic partnerships, or regulatory developments could trigger repricing as participants reassess the likelihood of an up or down close on the resolution date.

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