TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 1, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on June 1, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on June 1, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader expectations and can differ meaningfully from traditional analyst price targets or earnings estimates. While Wall Street analysts typically issue longer-term ratings and price forecasts, prediction markets distill near-term directional sentiment into a single probability. Comparing the Polymarket odds to consensus analyst views or recent earnings guidance can reveal whether traders are pricing in information that mainstream research has not yet fully reflected. This comparison helps identify potential edges or consensus blind spots ahead of the June 1 resolution.
The market resolves on Jun 1, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by Netflix's stock price movement on June 1. The specific resolution criteria—whether the comparison is to the opening price, closing price, or another reference point—are defined in the market's terms. Once the market closes, traders who backed the correct outcome receive their payout, while those on the losing side forfeit their stake. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the market end time, pending final price confirmation.
Several catalysts could shift NFLX sentiment before June 1. Earnings announcements, subscriber growth reports, or guidance revisions from Netflix management would likely drive significant repricing. Broader market moves—such as shifts in tech sector valuations, interest rate expectations, or streaming industry news—can also influence the stock. Competitive announcements from rivals, changes in content strategy, or macroeconomic data releases may sway trader positioning. Additionally, any regulatory developments affecting media or technology companies could impact conviction in either direction. Monitor Netflix's official communications and financial news closely for these signals.