TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Jennifer Balkcom
- Kalshi
Jennifer Balkcom - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 10, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the outcome of the Republican primary election for North Carolina's 11th congressional district. It will resolve based on who secures the party's nomination before a set deadline. The focus is on identifying the candidate who emerges as the official nominee from the Republican party for that district.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes if any of the listed candidates—Tim Moffitt, Kevin Corbin, Jennifer Balkcom, Adam Smith—or if no candidate emerges as the NC-11 Republican nominee on August 11, 2026. This means the market will close positively for any scenario where the nominated candidate falls within the predefined set of individuals, or if the nomination remains unoccupied by the specified date. The structure ensures broad coverage of potential primary outcomes, reflecting the uncertainty inherent in pre-election forecasting for party nominations.
Frequently asked questions
Compared to traditional polling and analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a different outlook due to trader speculation and real-time betting dynamics. While analysts may weigh demographic trends and campaign resources, traders price in immediate developments like debate performances or endorsement surges. This can lead to gaps between the implied chances here and poll averages, especially in low-volume periods. Monitoring both sources together provides a fuller view of expectations for the NC-11 Republican nomination.
This market resolves around Aug 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the primary election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote tally will determine the official Republican nominee, and the market will settle accordingly based on that verified result.
Key events such as primary debate performances, major endorsements, polling shifts, and candidate scandals are primary drivers that could sway this market. Economic announcements or state-specific controversies may also influence trader sentiment, especially if they affect voter preferences in the NC-11 district. As Aug 18, 2026 approaches, any final-party conventions or last-minute campaign surges will likely trigger sharp price adjustments, reflecting updated probabilities for each contender.
