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OPEN INTEREST:
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406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
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5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
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Above $3.135
- Kalshi
Above $3.135 - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 28, 2026
Latest in Commodities
Closed: Sep 28, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the precise closing price of natural gas at a specific future moment, settling based on minute-by-minute market data. It offers a detailed snapshot of commodity pricing at an exact point in time, reflecting immediate market conditions without averaging or delay.
Kalshi
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.850 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.855 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.860 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.865 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.870 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.875 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.880 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.885 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.890 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.895 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.900 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.905 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.910 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.915 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.920 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.925 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.930 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.935 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.940 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.945 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.950 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.955 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.960 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.965 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.970 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.975 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.980 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.985 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.990 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.995 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.005 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.010 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.015 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.020 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.025 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.030 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.035 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.040 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.045 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.050 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.055 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.060 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.065 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.070 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.075 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.080 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.085 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.090 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.095 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.100 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.105 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.110 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.115 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.120 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.125 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.130 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.135 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.140 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.145 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders, which can differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market incorporates a broader range of information and perspectives, including potentially unforeseen events. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets are forward-looking and can quickly adapt to new information. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential biases in either approach. This market offers a unique perspective on future price movements.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and trades occur when they match. The price reflects the probability of the natural gas price being above a certain level on September 28, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their prices based on new information and their own assessments of the market. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a highly liquid and efficient market for forecasting the future price of natural gas. The current price represents the consensus view of all participants.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will be based on the price of natural gas as reported by a recognized and authoritative source at 5:00 PM EDT on September 28, 2026. The exact price used for resolution will be determined by the platform's standard procedures for verifying data from established sources. Traders will then receive payouts based on their positions and the final settled price.
Numerous factors could influence this market before Sep 28, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as conflicts or sanctions impacting natural gas supply, would likely cause significant price movements. Unexpected changes in weather patterns, particularly during peak demand seasons for heating or cooling, could also shift expectations. Additionally, shifts in energy policy, technological advancements in renewable energy sources, and fluctuations in overall economic growth could all play a role. Any news affecting natural gas production, storage levels, or demand will be closely watched by traders in this market.
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