TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether the closing price of natural gas will be above 1.099 USD/MMBtu on September 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. Currently, the probability of this outcome occurring on Kalshi is 99.0%. The resolution source for this market is based on the 1-minute candlestick close price for natural gas, as reported by Kalshi. Traders should closely watch the Henry Hub Natural Gas futures contract leading up to September 25, 2026, as price movements in that contract will likely foreshadow the eventual settlement of this market.
The markets resolve based on the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas at 5:00 PM EDT on September 25, 2026. If the price exceeds the specified threshold for any individual market, that market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest three decimal places. The closing price for the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading activity from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the exact time, the most recently available published data will be used to determine the resolution. All markets share these consistent secondary rules for data verification and rounding.
This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The settlement will be based on the closing price of natural gas on the specified date and time, as reported by a recognized exchange. This market focuses on whether the price will be above or below a specific threshold, providing a clear and objective resolution. Traders will then receive payouts based on their positions and the final outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Unexpected changes in natural gas supply, such as disruptions to production or pipeline infrastructure, would likely have a substantial impact. Demand-side shocks, like unusually cold or hot weather patterns impacting heating or cooling needs, could also move the market. Geopolitical events affecting natural gas exporting countries, or shifts in energy policy, represent additional potential catalysts. Monitoring these signals and their potential impact on natural gas prices is crucial for understanding market movements.