TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Natural gas price on September 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
kalshi

Natural gas price on September 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Volume:
$38,348

Above $2.980

 - Kalshi

Above $2.980 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Closed: Sep 21, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $2.980

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,427
N/A
N/A
$2,290
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.975

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,003
N/A
N/A
$1,834
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.985

View
100%
28%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,414
N/A
N/A
$2,183
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.970

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,427
N/A
N/A
$1,307
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.940

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,213
N/A
N/A
$1,213
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.955

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,152
N/A
N/A
$1,139
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.950

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$736
N/A
N/A
$736
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.960

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$610
N/A
N/A
$610
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.965

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$348
N/A
N/A
$347
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.885

View
100%
27%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$155
N/A
N/A
$155
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.850

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.945

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$74
N/A
N/A
$72
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.870

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.930

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.910

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.915

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.920

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.925

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.990

View
0%
89%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,240
N/A
N/A
$1,439
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3

View
0%
85%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,736
N/A
N/A
$1,548
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.995

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,576
N/A
N/A
$1,086
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3.040

View
0%
61%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,020
N/A
N/A
$1,925
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3.010

View
0%
75%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,930
N/A
N/A
$1,366
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3.005

View
0%
73%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,810
N/A
N/A
$1,315
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3.020

View
0%
75%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,486
N/A
N/A
$1,396
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 60

Description

This event tracks the precise closing price of natural gas at a specific future moment, settling based on real-time market data at that exact timestamp. It tests participants' ability to predict short-term price movements in the commodity market.

Kalshi

Multiple markets exist with varying threshold prices for natural gas closing above specified values on September 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. All markets use the same settlement methodology: the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick at that exact time determines outcomes. Prices are rounded to three decimal places, with the close price defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (e.g., the 4:59 PM candlestick closes at 5:00 PM). If data is unavailable for the specified timestamp, the most recent published data is used for resolution. Each market resolves to "Yes" if the price exceeds its respective threshold, otherwise "No".

Frequently asked questions

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market represents a probability distribution of potential outcomes. It’s often found that prediction market prices are more accurate than polls or expert opinions, as they incentivize participants to reveal their true beliefs. However, it's important to note that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses, and discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and information access.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders submit bids and offers for contracts representing different natural gas price outcomes. The current price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their prices based on new information and their own analysis, leading to a dynamic and efficient price discovery process. The market aggregates individual opinions into a single, transparent price signal, offering a valuable indicator of future expectations.

This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the natural gas price at 5:00 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The settlement price will be based on a widely recognized index for natural gas, ensuring transparency and objectivity. This provides a clear and unambiguous determination of the market’s outcome, allowing for fair and accurate settlement of all outstanding contracts. Traders can monitor the market leading up to this date to refine their predictions.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Sep 21, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as conflicts or disruptions to supply routes, could cause price volatility. Unexpected changes in weather patterns, particularly during peak demand seasons, can also influence natural gas prices. Furthermore, shifts in energy policy, technological advancements in renewable energy sources, and fluctuations in economic growth could all play a role. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding how this market evolves over the next two years.