TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks natural gas pricing at a precise moment in the future, reflecting how energy markets respond to supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and weather patterns influencing storage and consumption.
The event resolves based on the closing price of a one-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. If the price exceeds any of the specified thresholds from $0.999 to $4.899 USD/MMBtu, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Prices are rounded to the nearest three decimal places, with the closing price defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (e.g., the 4:59 PM candlestick closes at 5:00 PM). If data for the exact time is unavailable, the most recently published data from the source agency is used to determine the settlement value.
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions within this market to those of traditional analysts. However, a common observation is that prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical forecasts. While analysts may focus on fundamental factors like supply and demand, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders considering numerous variables, including geopolitical events and unexpected disruptions. Do analysts generally agree on the future price of natural gas? That's a key question for evaluating the market's signal.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the natural gas price at 5:00 PM EDT on October 09, 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized index for natural gas, ensuring a transparent and objective determination. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual price at the specified time. It's important to monitor events leading up to this date as they could influence the final result.
Numerous factors could significantly impact this market. Major weather events, particularly cold snaps during winter or hurricanes affecting production areas, can drastically alter demand and supply. Geopolitical instability, especially in key natural gas producing regions, is another critical factor. Unexpected changes in energy policy, such as new regulations or infrastructure projects, could also shift market expectations. Finally, significant shifts in global economic growth and industrial activity will influence the overall demand for natural gas, and therefore, this market.