TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Natural gas price on October 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
kalshi

Natural gas price on October 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Volume:
$149,797

Above $3.099

 - Kalshi

Above $3.099 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 9, 2026

Closed: Oct 9, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $3.099

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$46,556
N/A
N/A
$22,321
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.699

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$21,000
N/A
N/A
$21,000
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $3.299

100%
38%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16,970
N/A
N/A
$11,878
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $3.199

100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16,523
N/A
N/A
$11,545
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.999

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15,772
N/A
N/A
$11,326
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.899

100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,837
N/A
N/A
$6,782
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.199

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$843
N/A
N/A
$843
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.799

100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$221
N/A
N/A
$221
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $0.999

100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$158
N/A
N/A
$158
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.499

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.399

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $3.399

0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,194
N/A
N/A
$10,285
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3.699

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,438
N/A
N/A
$7,438
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3.499

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,174
N/A
N/A
$1,833
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3.799

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,535
N/A
N/A
$1,535
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3.599

0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$325
N/A
N/A
$325
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3.899

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.099

N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.199

N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.299

N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.399

N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.499

N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.599

N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.699

N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.799

N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 40

Description

The event tracks natural gas pricing at a precise moment in the future, reflecting how energy markets respond to supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and weather patterns influencing storage and consumption.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the closing price of a one-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. If the price exceeds any of the specified thresholds from $0.999 to $4.899 USD/MMBtu, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Prices are rounded to the nearest three decimal places, with the closing price defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (e.g., the 4:59 PM candlestick closes at 5:00 PM). If data for the exact time is unavailable, the most recently published data from the source agency is used to determine the settlement value.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the natural gas price market tracks the current implied probabilities of various price outcomes, alongside a price history chart showing how expectations have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $75,965, and the total market volume, which stands at $149,797. This provides a clear picture of how traders are positioning themselves on the future price of natural gas. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity and sentiment.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions within this market to those of traditional analysts. However, a common observation is that prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical forecasts. While analysts may focus on fundamental factors like supply and demand, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders considering numerous variables, including geopolitical events and unexpected disruptions. Do analysts generally agree on the future price of natural gas? That's a key question for evaluating the market's signal.

This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the natural gas price at 5:00 PM EDT on October 09, 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized index for natural gas, ensuring a transparent and objective determination. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual price at the specified time. It's important to monitor events leading up to this date as they could influence the final result.

Numerous factors could significantly impact this market. Major weather events, particularly cold snaps during winter or hurricanes affecting production areas, can drastically alter demand and supply. Geopolitical instability, especially in key natural gas producing regions, is another critical factor. Unexpected changes in energy policy, such as new regulations or infrastructure projects, could also shift market expectations. Finally, significant shifts in global economic growth and industrial activity will influence the overall demand for natural gas, and therefore, this market.