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410,482

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Natural gas price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
kalshi

Natural gas price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Volume:
$16,568

Above $2.799

 - Kalshi

Above $2.799 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $2.799

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,314
N/A
N/A
$727
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.699

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,182
N/A
N/A
$1,167
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.599

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$23
N/A
N/A
$23
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.899

View
0%
34%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,693
N/A
N/A
$2,141
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.999

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,443
N/A
N/A
$1,832
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3.199

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,448
N/A
N/A
$1,315
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3.099

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,170
N/A
N/A
$685
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3.399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,048
N/A
N/A
$1,048
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3.299

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$147
N/A
N/A
$147
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3.599

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $0.999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.099

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.199

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.299

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.399

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.499

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.599

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.699

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.799

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.899

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.099

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.199

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.299

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.399

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 40

Description

The event tracks natural gas pricing at a specific moment in the future, reflecting how market participants anticipate energy demand, supply dynamics, and geopolitical factors might influence commodity values by late October 2026.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the closing price of a one-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. If the price exceeds any of the specified thresholds—ranging from $0.999 to $4.899 USD per million British thermal units (MMBtu)—the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes.' Prices are rounded to the nearest three decimal places, with the closing price defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (e.g., the 4:59 PM candlestick closes at 5:00 PM). If data for the exact timestamp is unavailable, the most recent published data is used. Thresholds are evaluated sequentially, meaning any threshold met or exceeded triggers a resolution for that specific market outcome.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the natural gas price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of natural gas on October 30, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT. You’ll find a price history chart showing how expectations have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded, currently at $16,568, and the 24-hour volume, which is $10,127. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities within this specific market. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are positioning themselves on the future price.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for this specific event. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical analyst reports. This market, like others, benefits from the ‘wisdom of the crowd’, potentially leading to more accurate predictions as new information becomes available. It’s worth noting that analysts’ forecasts can be influenced by biases or institutional pressures, whereas this market reflects the collective judgment of individuals with skin in the game.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and trades occur when they match. The price reflects the probability of the natural gas price being above a certain level at the specified time. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their prices based on new information and their own assessments of the future. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date expectations regarding natural gas prices, and allows participants to express their views on potential price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the closing price of natural gas on the relevant exchange at 5:00 PM EDT on October 30, 2026. The specific price used for resolution will be determined by publicly available data sources, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders should monitor these sources as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about the final determination of this market.

Several factors could significantly influence the natural gas price market between now and Oct 30, 2026. Major weather events, particularly extreme temperatures during the winter heating season, can dramatically impact demand. Changes in natural gas storage levels, geopolitical events affecting supply (such as disruptions in Russia or the Middle East), and shifts in economic conditions impacting industrial demand are also key drivers. Furthermore, regulatory changes related to energy production or consumption, and advancements in renewable energy technologies, could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market.