TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the price of natural gas at a specific future moment, resolving based on whether the price exceeds various predefined thresholds. The outcome depends on the exact closing price at the end of a one-minute trading interval on a particular date and time.
Kalshi
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.850 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.855 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.860 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.865 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.870 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.875 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.880 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.885 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.890 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.895 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.900 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.905 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.910 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.915 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.920 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.925 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.930 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.935 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.940 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.945 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.950 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.955 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.960 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.965 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.970 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.975 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.980 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.985 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.990 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.995 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.005 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.010 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.015 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.020 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.025 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.030 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.035 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.040 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.045 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.050 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.055 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.060 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.065 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.070 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.075 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.080 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.085 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.090 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.095 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.100 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.105 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.110 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.115 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.120 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.125 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.130 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.135 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.140 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.145 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for the natural gas price. However, generally, prediction markets can offer a unique perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd and potentially identifying insights that individual analysts might miss. Discrepancies between this market and analyst predictions could reflect differing assumptions about supply and demand, geopolitical factors, or weather patterns. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often point estimates, while this market represents a probability distribution of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. Buying a contract means you believe the natural gas price will be above the contract’s price at the settlement time, while selling means you believe it will be below. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, and the volume indicates the level of agreement or disagreement among traders regarding the likely price of natural gas.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the natural gas price at 5:00 PM EDT on October 26, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The settlement price will be based on a widely recognized benchmark for natural gas, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the result. Traders will then be paid out or required to pay based on whether their contracts align with the final price.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected changes in natural gas supply, such as disruptions to production or pipeline infrastructure, would likely cause price fluctuations. Demand shocks, potentially driven by unusually cold or hot weather patterns, or shifts in industrial activity, could also move the market. Geopolitical events, particularly those affecting major natural gas producers or transit routes, represent another potential catalyst. Finally, significant changes in energy policy or technological advancements in alternative energy sources could influence expectations about long-term natural gas prices.
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