TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 31, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the precise closing price of natural gas at a specific moment, using tightly defined thresholds to determine outcomes. Each market examines whether the price exceeds a particular value, allowing for detailed analysis of price movements at that exact timestamp.
All markets resolve based on the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest three decimal places, with the close price defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (e.g., the 4:59 PM candlestick closes at 5:00 PM). If data for the specified timestamp is unavailable, the most recently published data from the source agency is used to determine resolution. Each market has a unique threshold, and resolution to 'Yes' occurs only if the closing price exceeds the respective threshold.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders continuously submit bids and asks that determine the current implied probability. The platform’s pricing mechanism balances supply and demand, adjusting the odds as new information emerges or trading volume changes. This dynamic process ensures that the market price reflects the collective judgment of participants at any given moment.
This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will look to official settlements or widely accepted data sources to determine whether the market ends above or below the specified threshold. The exact timing follows the platform’s standard post-event verification process.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including energy demand surprises, supply disruptions, weather forecasts affecting storage levels, geopolitical developments influencing exports, and key economic data releases. Any event that changes the expected price path will likely prompt rapid adjustments in trading activity and odds on Kalshi as participants reassess their positions.