TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 24, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the price of natural gas on a specific date and time, resolving based on whether the price exceeds various thresholds. It uses a standardized contract to ensure consistency and accuracy in settlement, reflecting real-world trading conditions for natural gas futures.
The market resolves based on the closing price of the natural gas NGDV6 contract at 5:00 PM EDT on August 24, 2026. Settlement uses the nearest listed contract month, rolling forward 5 business days before the current contract's last trading day. Prices are rounded to the nearest three decimal places, with the closing price defined as the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. If data is unavailable at the specified time, the most recent published data determines the outcome. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with 'Yes' resolving if the price exceeds the threshold and 'No' if it does not.
On Kalshi, traders actively set the odds for the natural gas price market through continuous bidding and asking. The current probability reflects collective expectations about future supply-demand dynamics and energy policies. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Market depth and liquidity influence how swiftly prices adjust to new information, with volume of $112,023 indicating trader interest. The platform’s pricing mechanism aggregates these bids in real time, offering a transparent view of where participants believe the market is headed.
This market resolves around Aug 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the actual natural gas price at the specified time and date, removing any ambiguity for participants.
Several signals could shift this market before Aug 24, 2026. Changes in global energy demand, especially from major economies, often impact natural gas valuations. Supply-side events—such as pipeline openings, storage levels, or geopolitical tensions affecting export routes—can also create volatility. Weather forecasts influencing seasonal heating or cooling needs frequently drive short-term price swings. Meanwhile, policy decisions on subsidies, emissions regulations, or inventory releases may rebalance market expectations.