This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures U.S. Henry LD1 Fixed Price Future (denoted by Pyth as "HN") for the October 19, 2026 trading day is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures U.S. Henry LD1 Fixed Price Future for the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures U.S. Henry LD1 Fixed Price Future for the October 19, 2026 trading day is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures U.S. Henry LD1 Fixed Price Future for the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/6590258/Henry-LD1-Fixed-Price-Future). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 7:50 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 5:50 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See: https://www.ice.com/holiday-hours). The Active Month is the nearest listed contract, except during that contract's final three trading sessions. At the open of the third-to-last trading session, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month. Each contract's last trading day will be determined by ICE Futures U.S. per the Henry LD1 Fixed Price future contract specification (generally the third last business day of the month preceding the contract month). The last trading day for each contract is posted at https://www.ice.com/products/6590258/Henry-LD1-Fixed-Price-Future/expiry. For example, if the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is a Tuesday, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month at the start of the trading session for the Friday of the previous week (7:50 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session for the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other disruption, the official close price published for the Active Month Henry LD1 Fixed Price Future will be used to determine the closing price for that day (See: https://www.ice.com/report/142 with "H-Henry LD1 Fixed Price Future" selected). In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of ICE Futures U.S. Henry LD1 Fixed Price Future available at https://app.pyth.com/explore?search=Commodities.HN. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the natural gas price market tracks the current odds of natural gas prices increasing or decreasing by October 19. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $229. The total volume traded in this market is $320. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities based on recent activity and overall interest in the direction of natural gas prices.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for natural gas. While some analysts predict a continued decline in prices due to increased production and storage levels, this market shows a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential outcomes. It’s important to remember that prediction markets represent the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially capturing information and insights not fully reflected in standard financial analyses. This difference highlights the unique value of prediction markets as a forward-looking indicator.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether natural gas prices will be up or down on October 19. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments to probabilities as new information becomes available, making it a responsive indicator of market sentiment. The current price reflects the probability of the 'Up' outcome, with the 'Down' outcome being implicitly priced as 1 minus that probability.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome determined by whether the front-month Henry Hub Natural Gas futures contract price on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is higher or lower than its price at the start of the trading day on October 1st, 2026. The resolution will be verified against credible public reporting from NYMEX and other established financial news sources. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome and their positions in this market. The outcome will be clearly posted on Polymarket.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected weather patterns, particularly colder-than-expected temperatures in key consumption regions, could drive up demand and prices. Changes in natural gas storage levels, reported weekly by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), will also be closely watched. Geopolitical events impacting natural gas supply, such as disruptions in production or pipeline infrastructure, could create volatility. Finally, any significant shifts in economic conditions affecting overall energy demand could influence the direction of this market.

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 19?

Markets

Details