TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 5?
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Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 5?

Volume:
$4,557

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 5?

 - Polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 5? - Polymarket

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Resolved Jun 5, 2026

Closed: Jun 5, 5:00 PM EST

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Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 5?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,557
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on June 5, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on June 5, 2026 is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to that contract's last trading session, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month is a Thursday, the last trading session is the session for the prior Tuesday, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for the Friday of the previous week (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

The Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 5? dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for this commodities event. It displays the current probability that natural gas will move up or down by the market close on June 5, 2026. The dashboard logs 24-hour trading volume at $4,557 and cumulative volume at $4,557, giving traders visibility into market depth and liquidity. You can monitor how odds shift as new information emerges, review historical price charts, and compare current sentiment against past trading patterns to inform your prediction.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money consensus from traders betting on natural gas direction by June 5, whereas analyst forecasts rely on fundamental models, supply-demand analysis, and geopolitical assessments. Prediction markets often incorporate forward-looking sentiment faster than traditional analyst reports, since traders face immediate financial incentive to price in emerging information. Comparing Polymarket odds to published analyst views and energy research can reveal where the crowd disagrees with expert consensus, potentially signaling underpriced or overpriced outcomes. Both sources offer complementary perspectives on natural gas momentum.

Natural gas prices are sensitive to weather forecasts (heating and cooling demand), US production data, storage inventory reports, geopolitical supply disruptions, and global LNG demand shifts. Unexpected cold snaps or heat waves can drive demand spikes. OPEC+ decisions and sanctions affecting energy markets may redirect global gas flows. Domestic drilling activity, pipeline maintenance, and renewable energy generation also influence short-term supply-demand balance. Macroeconomic data affecting industrial demand and currency movements can amplify volatility. Monitor weekly EIA storage reports and weather updates closely as June 5 approaches.