This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on June 30, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on June 30, 2026 is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to that contract's last trading session, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month is a Thursday, the last trading session is the session for the prior Tuesday, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for the Friday of the previous week (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the natural gas price movement market dashboard displays real-time odds and historical price data for traders wagering on whether natural gas will move up or down by the June 30 settlement date. The interface shows current bid-ask spreads, cumulative trading volume, and a price chart reflecting how market sentiment has shifted over time. Traders use this data to monitor liquidity, track momentum, and assess the collective forecast embedded in the odds. The dashboard also displays recent trades and order book depth, giving participants visibility into market activity and helping them time their positions strategically.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and live market pricing rather than point estimates. While energy analysts publish price targets and directional views based on supply, demand, and geopolitical factors, this market aggregates the beliefs of traders who profit or lose based on accuracy. Prediction markets tend to update faster than consensus forecasts when new information emerges, and they can reveal tail-risk scenarios that analysts downplay. Comparing the implied probability here to published analyst sentiment provides a useful cross-check on whether the market is pricing in tail risks or anchored to conventional wisdom.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker that prices each outcome based on the ratio of liquidity and cumulative trades. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As traders buy or sell shares representing "up" or "down," the price adjusts continuously to reflect the marginal probability of each outcome. The platform charges a small fee on each trade, and prices converge toward the true probability as more capital flows into the market. Real-time price discovery means the odds you see reflect the latest consensus among active traders, making this an efficient gauge of near-term sentiment on natural gas direction.

This market resolves around Jun 30, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether natural gas prices have moved up or down relative to the reference level established at market inception. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome receive their payout, while losing positions expire worthless. The exact timing of payout processing depends on Polymarket's settlement workflow, but resolution typically occurs within hours of the event becoming publicly verifiable.

Natural gas prices are sensitive to weather forecasts, inventory reports, production disruptions, and macroeconomic data. A colder-than-expected summer could boost demand and push prices higher, while a supply surge from new production or LNG exports could pressure them lower. Geopolitical tensions affecting global energy flows, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and industrial demand surprises all influence trader positioning. Weekly storage reports and real-time production updates tend to trigger sharp repricing. Monitoring these catalysts helps traders anticipate volatility and adjust their exposure before major announcements hit the market.

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 30?

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