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Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 25?
kalshi
polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 25?

Volume:
$247,161

above $3.270

 - Kalshi

above $3.270 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 25, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above $3.270

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$21,374
N/A
N/A
$5,075
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.260

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,702
N/A
N/A
$1,796
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.265

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,675
N/A
N/A
$2,722
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 25?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,444
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.245

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,625
N/A
N/A
$1,678
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.240

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,977
N/A
N/A
$3,214
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.250

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,300
N/A
N/A
$1,898
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.235

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,808
N/A
N/A
$1,614
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.225

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,151
N/A
N/A
$2,489
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.230

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,940
N/A
N/A
$1,208
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.255

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,812
N/A
N/A
$1,198
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.215

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,022
N/A
N/A
$2,020
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.220

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,489
N/A
N/A
$1,162
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.210

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,901
N/A
N/A
$1,646
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.195

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,743
N/A
N/A
$1,452
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.200

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,456
N/A
N/A
$1,431
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.205

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,228
N/A
N/A
$1,221
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.850

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$434
N/A
N/A
$434
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.180

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$270
N/A
N/A
$229
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.130

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$264
N/A
N/A
$228
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.135

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$255
N/A
N/A
$219
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.190

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$220
N/A
N/A
$143
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.110

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$219
N/A
N/A
$210
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.160

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$143
N/A
N/A
$118
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.175

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$134
N/A
N/A
$134
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 111

Description

This event group asks whether Natural Gas (NG) futures will close higher or lower on June 25, 2026. Kalshi offers 110 binary YES/NO conditions tied to specific price thresholds at 5:00 PM EDT, while Polymarket frames the same date as a directional comparison against the prior trading day's close. Both reference the active-month NG futures contract.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds (110 discrete YES conditions); Polymarket uses relative day-over-day comparison. A single price on June 25 can satisfy Kalshi's YES while failing Polymarket's UP, or vice versa.Hero tip: Do not assume Kalshi YES equals Polymarket UP. Kalshi resolves YES if June 25 close exceeds any threshold (lowest 2.850); Polymarket resolves UP only if June 25 close beats June 24 close. If June 24 closed at 3.000 and June 25 closes at 2.950, Kalshi YES triggers (multiple thresholds) but Polymarket resolves DOWN. Conversely, if June 24 closed at 2.800 and June 25 closes at 2.850, Polymarket resolves UP but Kalshi may not trigger (threshold 2.850 requires ABOVE, not equal). Always cross-reference the prior day's settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Absolute threshold model: 110 YES conditions, each tied to a specific price level (2.850–3.395 USD/MMBtu) at 5:00 PM EDT on June 25, 2026. All conditions reference the same 1-minute candlestick close. Resolution is YES if price exceeds any single threshold; NO if price is at or below the lowest threshold (2.850).
  • Polymarket: Relative directional model: UP if June 25 close > prior trading day close; DOWN if June 25 close < prior trading day close. Resolves 50-50 if prices are equal, no trade occurs, or June 25 is not a trading day. Uses Pyth 'Close' value for the 1-minute candle at end of regular trading hours (5:00 PM ET), or last valid Pyth price if no close available, or official exchange settlement price as fallback.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on June 25, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on June 25, 2026 is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to that contract's last trading session, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month is a Thursday, the last trading session is the session for the prior Tuesday, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for the Friday of the previous week (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

Settlement is determined by comparing the 1-minute candlestick close price for natural gas using the NGDQ6 contract on June 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT against multiple price thresholds ranging from $2.850 to $3.145 USD per MMBtu, each in $0.005 increments. Each threshold represents a separate market outcome. The settlement is based on the nearest listed contract month, rolling forward to the next contract 5 business days before the current contract's last trading day. The settlement contract is named after its delivery month per standard exchange symbology. The close price is defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. All settlement values are rounded to the nearest 3 decimal places. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market prices reflect crowdsourced expectations from thousands of traders with real financial stakes, often diverging from traditional analyst consensus. Unlike published forecasts, which rely on models and historical patterns, this market incorporates live information, geopolitical developments, and supply-demand shifts as they emerge. Traders continuously adjust positions based on weather reports, inventory data, and global energy trends, making odds dynamic and responsive. When analyst views and market odds diverge significantly, it often signals either new information not yet reflected in published research or disagreement over how existing data should be weighted.

Weekly inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration are primary catalysts, as storage levels directly influence near-term price expectations. Weather forecasts matter significantly—cooler temperatures boost demand for heating, while warmer conditions reduce it. Geopolitical developments affecting global energy supply, OPEC+ production decisions, and LNG export capacity changes can all shift sentiment. Macroeconomic data, including inflation reports and Federal Reserve signals, influence energy demand broadly. Additionally, unexpected production disruptions, pipeline maintenance schedules, or international supply shocks can trigger sharp repricing in the final weeks before resolution.