TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15?

polymarket

kalshi

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15?

Volume:

$104,292

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15?

- Polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 15, 2026

Closed: Jun 15, 5:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

0.1¢

N/A

$10,087

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.145

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$7,899

N/A

N/A

$2,776

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.150

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$5,492

N/A

N/A

$5,402

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.135

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$5,357

N/A

N/A

$1,572

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.125

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$4,839

N/A

N/A

$2,049

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.020

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$4,630

N/A

N/A

$4,477

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.130

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$3,873

N/A

N/A

$1,645

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.100

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$3,485

N/A

N/A

$1,231

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.115

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$3,226

N/A

N/A

$1,104

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.065

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$3,080

N/A

N/A

$1,734

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.070

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$2,987

N/A

N/A

$1,982

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.140

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$2,916

N/A

N/A

$1,800

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.025

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$2,834

N/A

N/A

$1,749

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.075

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$2,353

N/A

N/A

$1,475

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.045

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$2,223

N/A

N/A

$1,509

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.030

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$1,935

N/A

N/A

$1,024

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.055

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$1,904

N/A

N/A

$1,210

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.060

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$1,802

N/A

N/A

$1,079

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.110

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$1,798

N/A

N/A

$738

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.085

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$1,782

N/A

N/A

$996

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.120

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$1,748

N/A

N/A

$1,234

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.105

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$1,734

N/A

N/A

$453

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $2.995

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$1,712

N/A

N/A

$1,712

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.095

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$1,683

N/A

N/A

$1,442

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $3.050

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$1,669

N/A

N/A

$1,327

Settled

Yes

Total markets: 25 of 71

Description

This event group asks whether Natural Gas (NG) futures will close higher or lower on June 15, 2026. Kalshi offers 60 individual binary contracts, each tied to specific price thresholds above which the market resolves Yes. Polymarket offers a single comparative market: Up if June 15 close exceeds the prior trading day's close, Down if lower, or 50-50 if equal or no trade.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds (60 separate contracts), while Polymarket uses relative day-over-day comparison. These measure fundamentally different outcomes and will not correlate predictably.Hero tip: Kalshi contracts are directional bets on specific price levels; Polymarket is a pure momentum bet. A June 15 close of 2.900 USD/MMBtu will resolve Yes on Kalshi contracts with thresholds below 2.900, but on Polymarket it depends entirely on June 14's close. Establish the prior trading day close before trading Polymarket. For Kalshi, identify which threshold contract aligns with your price forecast.

Critical divergence points:

Kalshi: 60 separate binary contracts, each with a fixed absolute price threshold. All resolve Yes if the 1-minute candlestick close at 5:00 PM EDT on June 15, 2026 exceeds the specified USD/MMBtu level (range: 2.850 to 3.145). Key Quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDN6 contract on June 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above [threshold] USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Polymarket: Single comparative market resolving Up if June 15 close exceeds the prior trading day close, Down if lower, or 50-50 if equal, no trade, or not a trading day. Uses Pyth Close value for the Active Month contract at end of regular trading hours. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on June 15, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day.'

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on June 15, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on June 15, 2026 is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to that contract's last trading session, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month is a Thursday, the last trading session is the session for the prior Tuesday, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for the Friday of the previous week (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

Settlement is determined by comparing the 1-minute candlestick close price for natural gas using the NGDN6 contract on June 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT against multiple price thresholds ranging from $2.850 to $3.145 USD per MMBtu, each in $0.005 increments. Each threshold represents a separate binary outcome: if the closing price exceeds the specified threshold, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, No. Settlement is based on the nearest listed contract month, rolling forward to the next contract 5 business days before the current contract's last trading day. The settlement contract is named after its delivery month per standard exchange symbology. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 3 decimal places. The close price for any 1-minute candlestick represents the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds represent crowdsourced probability estimates from traders risking real capital, whereas analyst forecasts typically rely on fundamental models, supply-demand analysis, and geopolitical factors. Markets often incorporate faster-moving sentiment and real-time data flows, while analyst reports may lag by days or weeks. For natural gas, prediction markets tend to reflect immediate reactions to weather patterns, storage reports, and production news. Comparing this market's current odds to published analyst price targets can reveal whether traders are pricing in consensus views or diverging based on near-term tactical positioning. Both approaches offer complementary insights into expected price direction.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates distinct order books, fee structures, and user demographics, leading to natural price variations. Polymarket uses binary contracts with precise strike levels, attracting precision-focused traders, while Kalshi offers simpler directional framing that appeals to broader participation. Liquidity depth, geographic trader concentration, and platform-specific incentives also drive wedges. Additionally, contract expiration timing and settlement rule nuances can cause one venue to price slightly higher or lower than the other. Monitoring both prices helps identify arbitrage opportunities and reveals which trader cohort holds stronger conviction on natural gas direction.

Natural gas prices are sensitive to weather forecasts, particularly heating or cooling demand expectations. Storage inventory reports, production disruptions, and liquefied natural gas export flows can trigger sharp moves. Geopolitical developments affecting supply chains, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and crude oil price correlations also influence sentiment. Seasonal demand patterns and unexpected maintenance at major facilities are common catalysts. Traders should monitor weekly storage data, weather models, and energy news closely. Macro economic indicators affecting industrial demand and any supply-side shocks will likely drive this market's direction into the June 15 resolution window.