TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 1, 5:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on June 1, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on June 1, 2026 is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to that contract's last trading session, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month is a Thursday, the last trading session is the session for the prior Tuesday, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for the Friday of the previous week (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader belief about natural gas direction on June 1, often diverging from traditional analyst consensus. While energy analysts typically issue forecasts based on supply data, geopolitical risk, and seasonal demand patterns, prediction markets price in real-time sentiment and incorporate fast-moving information. Comparing Polymarket odds to published analyst reports and commodity research can reveal whether the market is pricing in risks analysts have overlooked or underweighting known catalysts.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Natural gas direction on Polymarket is priced as a binary outcome: traders buy or sell shares representing "Up" or "Down" movement by June 1 close. Share prices reflect the probability each outcome occurs, ranging from 0 to 1 (or 0% to 100%). Liquidity, recent price action in spot natural gas markets, and upcoming supply or demand catalysts drive trading activity and price discovery. Traders can enter or exit positions continuously until market resolution on Jun 1, 2026.
The Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 1 market resolves on Jun 1, 2026. Resolution is determined by comparing the closing price of natural gas on that date to the opening price or a specified reference level. Traders who correctly predicted the direction receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The exact settlement price source and time are specified in the market terms at creation.
Natural gas prices respond to supply disruptions, weather forecasts affecting heating and cooling demand, OPEC+ production decisions, US inventory reports, LNG export capacity changes, and geopolitical tensions in energy-producing regions. Seasonal demand shifts, storage levels, and macroeconomic growth expectations also influence direction. Traders should monitor weekly EIA inventory data, weather patterns, and energy news closely. Unexpected production outages or demand shocks in the days before June 1 can trigger sharp repricing on Polymarket.