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Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on July 27?
kalshi
polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on July 27?

Volume:
$60,145

Above $2.765

 - Kalshi

Above $2.765 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 27, 2026

Closed: Jul 27, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $2.765

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,770
N/A
N/A
$4,726
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.760

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,351
N/A
N/A
$3,774
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.770

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,265
N/A
N/A
$2,778
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.750

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,717
N/A
N/A
$1,698
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.755

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,277
N/A
N/A
$1,262
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on July 27?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,156
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.780

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,996
N/A
N/A
$2,566
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.775

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,623
N/A
N/A
$1,748
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.850

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,317
N/A
N/A
$1,894
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.800

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,061
N/A
N/A
$1,323
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.845

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,591
N/A
N/A
$1,315
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.785

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,555
N/A
N/A
$1,357
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.870

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,043
N/A
N/A
$922
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.955

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$930
N/A
N/A
$930
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.865

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$911
N/A
N/A
$882
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.920

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$853
N/A
N/A
$762
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.830

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$821
N/A
N/A
$740
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.795

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$794
N/A
N/A
$264
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.910

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$788
N/A
N/A
$534
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.840

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$785
N/A
N/A
$757
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.890

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$746
N/A
N/A
$737
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.880

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$725
N/A
N/A
$703
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.885

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$703
N/A
N/A
$634
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.825

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$650
N/A
N/A
$614
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.940

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$626
N/A
N/A
$621
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 81

Description

This event group determines whether natural gas prices will be higher on July 27, 2026, compared to a reference point. Kalshi uses a series of price thresholds to resolve to 'Yes' if any are exceeded, while Polymarket compares the closing price to the previous trading day's close.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamentally different resolution criteria: Kalshi uses a series of price thresholds while Polymarket uses a day-over-day comparisonHero tip: Trade Kalshi if you believe NG will exceed $2.85 on July 27 regardless of prior day movement. Trade Polymarket if you believe NG will be higher than the previous trading day's close, even if below $2.85.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if the close price of the NGDU6 contract on July 27, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above any of 60 thresholds from $2.85 to $3.145 USD/MMBtu
  • Polymarket: Resolves to Up if the close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on July 27, 2026 is higher than the close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on July 27, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on July 27, 2026 is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to that contract's last trading session, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month is a Thursday, the last trading session is the session for the prior Tuesday, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for the Friday of the previous week (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDU6 contract at 5:00 PM EDT on July 27, 2026. Each market has a specific price threshold; if the closing price exceeds the respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No. Settlement uses the nearest listed contract month, rolling forward 5 business days before the current contract's last trading day. Contracts are named by their delivery month, not expiration date, and prices are rounded to the nearest 3 decimal places. If data is unavailable at the specified time, the most recent published data determines the outcome.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Natural Gas price movement market aggregates data from multiple venues so you can monitor consensus views across platforms. It shows real-time odds, trading volume, and price trends for this market, letting you see how traders on different prediction markets are positioning themselves ahead of the July 27 resolution.

Across platforms tracking the Natural Gas price movement market, current odds show a strong bias toward higher prices, with probabilities well above 50%. Analyst forecasts from major financial institutions generally align with this upward trend, though some caution about seasonal demand fluctuations. The consensus among experts leans toward a modest rise, reflecting both market sentiment and fundamental supply-demand dynamics. This convergence between trader expectations and institutional analysis suggests a shared view of near-term price drivers, though minor divergences may arise from differing time horizons or risk assessments.