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Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on July 20?
kalshi
polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on July 20?

Volume:
$127,885

above $2.835

 - Kalshi

above $2.835 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 20, 2026

Closed: Jul 20, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above $2.835

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,618
N/A
N/A
$1,798
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.830

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,676
N/A
N/A
$2,347
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.825

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,682
N/A
N/A
$1,457
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.820

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,338
N/A
N/A
$1,042
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.810

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,029
N/A
N/A
$473
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.805

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$694
N/A
N/A
$684
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.815

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$607
N/A
N/A
$597
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.800

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$316
N/A
N/A
$272
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.850

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,681
N/A
N/A
$2,853
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.855

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,728
N/A
N/A
$1,469
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.840

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,453
N/A
N/A
$1,839
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.890

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,426
N/A
N/A
$2,074
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.860

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,244
N/A
N/A
$2,850
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.885

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,855
N/A
N/A
$1,728
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.880

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,804
N/A
N/A
$1,572
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.870

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,391
N/A
N/A
$2,255
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.845

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,353
N/A
N/A
$1,813
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.865

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,289
N/A
N/A
$1,705
Settled
No
kalshi

above $3.040

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,881
N/A
N/A
$3,881
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.875

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,733
N/A
N/A
$2,503
Settled
No
polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on July 20?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,784
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.910

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,303
N/A
N/A
$1,606
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.895

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,128
N/A
N/A
$1,256
Settled
No
kalshi

above $3.020

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,057
N/A
N/A
$2,057
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.915

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,014
N/A
N/A
$1,096
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 71

Description

This event group tracks whether the price of Natural Gas (NG) futures will move up or down on July 20, 2026. Kalshi offers 60 binary markets, each with a different price threshold, while Polymarket offers a single comparative market measuring price change relative to the prior trading day's close.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure Natural Gas price movement using fundamentally different methodologies: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds on a specific contract (NGDQ6) at a fixed timestamp, while Polymarket uses relative price comparison (prior close vs current close) on the Active Month contract, which may be a different instrument due to CME rollover rules.Hero tip: These are two distinct markets with different resolution mechanics. A price that triggers Yes on Kalshi (e.g., NGDQ6 closes above 2.900) may not resolve Up on Polymarket if the prior day's close was higher. Conversely, Polymarket can resolve Up even if the absolute price is below all Kalshi thresholds, if the prior close was lower. Verify the Active Month contract identity and prior-day closing price before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 60 binary markets, each with an absolute price threshold. Resolves Yes if NGDQ6 1-minute candlestick close at exactly 5:00 PM EDT on July 20, 2026 exceeds the specified threshold (ranging 2.850 to 3.145 USD/MMBtu in 0.005 increments). No relative comparison; purely threshold-based. Key Quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDQ6 contract on July 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above [threshold] USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Single comparative market. Resolves Up if Active Month NG futures close on July 20, 2026 is higher than the most recent prior trading day's close; resolves Down if lower; resolves 50-50 if equal, no trade, or July 20 is not a trading day. Uses Pyth Close values and may reference a different contract than NGDQ6 depending on CME Active Month rollover. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on July 20, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on July 20, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on July 20, 2026 is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to that contract's last trading session, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month is a Thursday, the last trading session is the session for the prior Tuesday, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for the Friday of the previous week (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

Settlement is determined by comparing the 1-minute candlestick close price for natural gas using the NGDQ6 contract on July 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT against multiple price thresholds ranging from $2.850 to $3.145 USD per MMBtu, each in $0.005 increments. The settlement is based on the nearest listed contract month, rolling forward to the next contract 5 business days before the current contract's last trading day. The close price represents the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. All settlement values are rounded to the nearest 3 decimal places. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market prices reflect live trader conviction rather than published analyst reports. While Wall Street forecasters rely on models and historical data, this market aggregates real-money bets from thousands of participants who face direct financial consequences for accuracy. Prediction markets often move faster than consensus revisions when new supply, demand, or geopolitical data emerges. Many traders use analyst forecasts as one input alongside weather patterns, inventory reports, and macroeconomic signals. The two sources can diverge significantly, especially when breaking news shifts expectations faster than formal research updates.