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Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on July 13?
kalshi
polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on July 13?

Volume:
$137,938

above $2.880

 - Kalshi

above $2.880 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 13, 2026

Closed: Jul 13, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above $2.880

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,919
N/A
N/A
$4,628
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.875

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,235
N/A
N/A
$4,925
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.870

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,115
N/A
N/A
$2,428
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.890

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,792
N/A
N/A
$2,505
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.885

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,520
N/A
N/A
$1,590
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.895

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,620
N/A
N/A
$2,975
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.860

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,456
N/A
N/A
$5,192
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.855

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,114
N/A
N/A
$5,442
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.900

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,638
N/A
N/A
$2,576
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.850

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,585
N/A
N/A
$4,101
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.865

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,233
N/A
N/A
$1,952
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on July 13?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,711
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.905

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,623
N/A
N/A
$2,147
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.910

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,402
N/A
N/A
$1,732
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.915

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,113
N/A
N/A
$1,107
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.950

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,918
N/A
N/A
$1,140
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.925

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,176
N/A
N/A
$969
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.940

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,161
N/A
N/A
$907
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.920

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,874
N/A
N/A
$654
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.935

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,486
N/A
N/A
$228
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.930

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,389
N/A
N/A
$259
Settled
No
kalshi

above $3.050

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,051
N/A
N/A
$769
Settled
No
kalshi

above $3.030

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$789
N/A
N/A
$698
Settled
No
kalshi

above $3.075

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$777
N/A
N/A
$767
Settled
No
kalshi

above $3.115

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$739
N/A
N/A
$739
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group asks whether the closing price of Natural Gas (NG) futures on July 13, 2026 will be higher or lower than the prior trading day's close. Kalshi offers 60 binary Yes/No markets at 5-cent price increments (2.850–3.145 USD/MMBtu), while Polymarket offers a single Up/Down comparison market relative to the previous trading day's close.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds at a fixed timestamp (5:00 PM EDT, NGDQ6 contract), while Polymarket uses a relative day-over-day comparison of the Active Month contract's closing price. The measurement methodologies and settlement values are incompatible.Hero tip: Kalshi markets are directional bets on specific price levels; Polymarket is a momentum bet. Confirm the Active Month contract identity on both July 12 and July 13 before trading Polymarket. On Kalshi, all 60 markets reference the same contract and timestamp, so they are internally consistent but independent of prior-day prices.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 60 binary Yes/No markets, each with a fixed absolute price threshold. All resolve Yes if the 1-minute candlestick close for NGDQ6 at 5:00 PM EDT on July 13, 2026 exceeds the stated threshold (ranging from 2.850 to 3.145 USD/MMBtu in 5-cent increments). Example: Market 1 resolves Yes if close > 2.850 USD/MMBtu.
  • Polymarket: Single Up/Down market comparing the Active Month NG futures close on July 13, 2026 to the close on the most recent prior trading day. Resolves Up if July 13 close > prior close, Down if lower, and 50-50 if equal, no trade, or July 13 is not a trading day. Uses Pyth data or official CME settlement price as fallback.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on July 13, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on July 13, 2026 is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to that contract's last trading session, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month is a Thursday, the last trading session is the session for the prior Tuesday, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for the Friday of the previous week (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

Settlement is determined by comparing the 1-minute candlestick close price for natural gas using the NGDQ6 contract on July 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT against multiple price thresholds ranging from $2.850 to $3.145 USD per MMBtu, each in $0.005 increments. The settlement is based on the nearest listed contract month, rolling forward to the next contract 5 business days before the current contract's last trading day. The close price represents the final price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. All settlement values are rounded to the nearest 3 decimal places. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the exact time, the most recently available published data will be used for resolution.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets reflect live trader conviction rather than published analyst reports. While sell-side forecasts rely on models and historical data, this market prices real money at stake, often incorporating breaking news and sentiment faster than traditional research cycles. Traders here are incentivized to be accurate—wrong bets cost them directly. That said, analyst consensus and market odds can diverge; some traders may be contrarian or react to short-term noise. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd is aligned with expert opinion or betting against it.

Polymarket and Kalshi serve different trader bases, fee structures, and regulatory frameworks. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's order book and liquidity depth can shift odds independently, especially if one venue attracts more bullish or bearish flow on a given day. Differences in market design—such as how outcomes are framed or when trading halts—also influence pricing. Arbitrage traders often exploit these gaps, but temporary spreads persist due to geographic, technical, or user-base friction between venues.

Natural gas prices respond to weather forecasts, storage reports, production disruptions, and broader energy demand shifts. Unexpected cold snaps or supply outages can trigger sharp rallies, while mild conditions or inventory builds often pressure prices lower. Macroeconomic data—inflation, Fed policy, industrial activity—also influences the commodity. Geopolitical events affecting LNG exports and trading flows can create volatility. Traders monitor these catalysts closely; any headline reshaping near-term supply or demand expectations will shift odds in real time.