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Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on July 10?
kalshi
polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on July 10?

Volume:
$59,195

above $2.899

 - Kalshi

above $2.899 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 10, 2026

Closed: Jul 10, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above $2.899

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,020
N/A
N/A
$4,777
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.799

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,364
N/A
N/A
$9,126
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.299

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,790
N/A
N/A
$2,790
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $1.999

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$700
N/A
N/A
$700
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.099

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$700
N/A
N/A
$700
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.199

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$700
N/A
N/A
$700
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $0.999

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $1.099

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $1.199

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $1.299

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $1.399

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $1.499

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $1.599

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $1.699

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $1.799

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $1.899

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.699

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$98
N/A
N/A
$77
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,605
N/A
N/A
$4,022
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4.399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,549
N/A
N/A
$6,547
Settled
No
polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on July 10?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,690
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,063
N/A
N/A
$2,954
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4.499

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,489
N/A
N/A
$3,451
Settled
No
kalshi

above $3.099

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,030
N/A
N/A
$1,665
Settled
No
kalshi

above $3.599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,575
N/A
N/A
$1,575
Settled
No
kalshi

above $3.299

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$880
N/A
N/A
$597
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether natural gas (NG) futures prices move up or down on July 10, 2026. Kalshi offers 40 binary contracts tied to specific price thresholds at 5:00 PM EDT, while Polymarket offers a single relative-comparison market based on day-over-day price change using the active month contract.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds at a fixed time (5:00 PM EDT) on a specific contract (NGDQ6), while Polymarket uses relative day-over-day price comparison of the active month contract. These measure fundamentally different outcomes.Hero tip: Kalshi contracts are threshold-based bets on absolute price levels; Polymarket is a directional bet. A trader bullish on NG should verify which platform's structure aligns with their view. Kalshi offers granular price-level exposure; Polymarket offers simple up/down directional exposure. Cross-platform arbitrage is not viable here due to structural mismatch.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 40 binary contracts, each tied to a specific price threshold (0.999 to 4.899 USD/MMBtu). Resolution: YES if NGDQ6 1-minute candle close at 5:00 PM EDT on July 10, 2026 exceeds the stated threshold. All thresholds reference the same contract (NGDQ6) and same timestamp.
  • Polymarket: Single binary market comparing active month NG futures close on July 10, 2026 vs. close on most recent prior trading day. Resolves UP if higher, DOWN if lower, 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses Pyth Close values for 1-minute candles at end of regular trading hours (5:00 PM ET). Active month contract may differ from NGDQ6 depending on CME contract rollover schedule.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on July 10, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on July 10, 2026 is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to that contract's last trading session, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month is a Thursday, the last trading session is the session for the prior Tuesday, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for the Friday of the previous week (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

Settlement is determined by the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDQ6 contract on July 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT, measured in USD per MMBtu. The close price for a candlestick timestamped at a given time reflects the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (for example, the candlestick timestamped 5:00 PM reflects trading from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM). Settlement is based on the nearest listed contract month, rolling forward to the next contract 5 business days before the current contract's last trading day. The settlement contract is named after its delivery month according to standard exchange symbology. All settlement values are rounded to the nearest 3 decimal places. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the closing price exceeds that threshold. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.