TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above $2.695
- Kalshi
Above $2.695 - Kalshi
1W
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Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 17, 2026
Latest in Commodities
Closed: Aug 17, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group determines whether the Natural Gas (NG) price will be higher or lower on August 17, 2026, compared to a specific threshold or the previous trading day's close, depending on the platform.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Fundamental divergence in settlement criteria: Kalshi uses multiple fixed price thresholds, while Polymarket uses a relative price comparison to the previous trading dayHero tip: Kalshi markets will resolve Yes if price exceeds any of 60 specific thresholds on August 17, 2026. Polymarket resolves Up/Down based on price movement relative to the prior trading day. Always verify which contract specification applies before trading.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if the close price of the NGDU6 contract on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above any of 60 specified thresholds ranging from 2.850 USD/MMBtu to 3.145 USD/MMBtu
- Polymarket: Resolves to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on August 17, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. Resolves to Down if lower. 50-50 if equal, no trade, or non-trading day
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on August 17, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on August 17, 2026 is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to that contract's last trading session, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month is a Thursday, the last trading session is the session for the prior Tuesday, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for the Friday of the previous week (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the closing price of the natural gas NGDU6 contract at 5:00 PM EDT on August 17, 2026, observed in the final minute before that timestamp. The settlement contract adjusts to the nearest active month, switching contracts five business days before the current contract's expiry. Prices are rounded to three decimal places, and missing data defaults to the most recent available price. Each market has a unique threshold; if the settlement price exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes,' otherwise to 'No.'
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