TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 8?
kalshi
polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 8?

Volume:
$18,938

above $2.720

 - Kalshi

above $2.720 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Apr 8, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above $2.720

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$689
N/A
N/A
$645
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.710

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$561
N/A
N/A
$508
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.715

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$454
N/A
N/A
$442
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.725

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$431
N/A
N/A
$368
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.700

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$299
N/A
N/A
$296
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.705

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$112
N/A
N/A
$79
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.695

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
$7
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.675

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.690

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.650

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.655

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 8?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,373
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.730

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$784
N/A
N/A
$758
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.800

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$735
N/A
N/A
$391
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.805

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$728
N/A
N/A
$540
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.840

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$573
N/A
N/A
$402
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.890

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$529
N/A
N/A
$456
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.885

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$522
N/A
N/A
$428
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.880

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$510
N/A
N/A
$235
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.870

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$459
N/A
N/A
$270
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.865

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$440
N/A
N/A
$226
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.735

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$430
N/A
N/A
$296
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.895

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$424
N/A
N/A
$297
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.745

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$413
N/A
N/A
$366
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.750

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$348
N/A
N/A
$320
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 111

Description

This event group determines whether Natural Gas (NG) futures prices move up or down on April 8, 2026. Kalshi offers 110 binary markets each tied to specific price thresholds, while Polymarket offers a single comparative market measuring price change relative to the prior trading day's close.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds while Polymarket uses relative price comparison. These measure fundamentally different outcomes and cannot be unified into a single resolution framework.Hero tip: Kalshi markets are threshold-based bets on absolute price levels. Polymarket is a directional bet (up vs down from prior close). Know which you are trading. If you want to hedge, you need to know April 7's close to map Polymarket outcomes to Kalshi thresholds.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 110 separate binary markets, each resolving Yes if the 1-minute candle close at 5 PM EDT April 8, 2026 is at or above a specific threshold (2.650 to 3.195 USD/MMBtu). All thresholds use 'at least' or equivalent language, creating overlapping Yes outcomes. Key Quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on April 08, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is || Above/Below/Between/At least|| [threshold] USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Single comparative market resolving Up if April 8 close > prior trading day close, Down if lower, 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses Pyth Close value from 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle, with fallback to CME official close if Pyth data unavailable. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on April 8, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.