TOTAL VOLUME:

$53.9b

24H VOL:

$231,847,320

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,314,157,835

499,417

Markets across

14,310

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,754

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

51%

VS.

Kalshi:

49%

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kalshi
polymarket
Trending

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 17?

Volume:
$18,576
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on April 17, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on April 17, 2026 is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. For Natural Gas futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month. For Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month prior to the contract month, consistent with CME contract specifications. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official daily close price published for the Active Month Natural Gas (NG) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue:

Kalshi markets contain a logical contradiction: all 40 conditions resolve to YES if price exceeds their respective thresholds, creating an impossible scenario where the market resolves YES for virtually any price above 0.999 USD/MMBtu. Polymarket uses a relative comparison (Up vs Down from prior day), fundamentally different from Kalshi's absolute price thresholds. These are incompatible resolution frameworks.

Hero Tip:

Do not trade these markets as a unified group. On Kalshi, the market is logically broken—it will resolve YES unless the closing price is at or below 0.999 USD/MMBtu, making it a near-certainty YES bet. On Polymarket, you are betting on directional movement relative to the prior trading day's close, a completely different proposition. Treat them as separate, unrelated markets.

Critical Divergence Points:

  • Kalshi: All 40 conditions are structured as independent YES-resolution triggers based on absolute price thresholds ranging from 0.999 to 4.899 USD/MMBtu. Each condition states 'If the close price... is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.' There is no NO condition, no tie-breaker, and no mutual exclusivity. Any single price will satisfy multiple conditions simultaneously, all resolving to YES. Quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDK6(May 2026) contract on April 17, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 0.999 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Market resolves to UP if the April 17, 2026 closing price (4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle) is higher than the most recent prior trading day's closing price. Resolves to DOWN if lower. Resolves 50-50 if prices are exactly equal or if no trade occurs. The resolution is relative and comparative, not absolute. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on April 17, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.