TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 7, 4:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of a major stock market index on a specific date, dividing possible outcomes into narrow numerical ranges. Investors and analysts often monitor such indices to gauge market sentiment and economic health, making this a practical tool for forecasting and risk assessment.
Each market resolves based on the end-of-day value of the Nasdaq 100 index on August 07, 2026, falling within one of several specified numerical ranges. If the index closes within a given range, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets close on August 07, 2026, and expiration occurs at the sooner of the first official data release or one week after the closing date. The Exchange has applied modifications to the Source Agency and Underlying for index markets as outlined in the Kalshi Rulebook.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a more immediate, sentiment-driven view of where the Nasdaq-100 might land. While analysts may incorporate earnings, macro data, and valuations, traders in this market price in real-time reactions to news, Fed policy signals, and technical patterns. The resulting odds can diverge noticeably from consensus targets, especially ahead of major economic releases.
This market resolves around Aug 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will depend on the official Nasdaq-100 closing level at the specified time, verified against reliable market data sources. No further trading will occur after that point, and all positions are closed based on the confirmed result.
Several signals could shift this market in the coming months. Key U.S. inflation reports, Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions, major tech earnings releases, and geopolitical developments often drive index volatility. Sudden shifts in algorithmic trading patterns or large institutional flows can also cause rapid re-pricing. Traders will be watching these events closely as they could swing the odds toward different price ranges before Aug 7, 2026.