TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 14, 4:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event determines the closing value of a major stock market index on a specific date, categorizing outcomes into narrow numerical ranges. Investors and analysts often track such indices to gauge market performance and make informed decisions about economic trends and investment strategies.
Each market resolves based on the end-of-day value of the Nasdaq 100 index on August 14, 2026, falling within one of several specified numerical ranges. If the index closes within a given range, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets close on August 14, 2026, and expire either when the index value is officially released or one week after the close date, whichever occurs first. The Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets as per the Kalshi Rulebook.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, sentiment-driven view of where the Nasdaq-100 may land. Analysts typically incorporate fundamentals, macro indicators, and longer-term projections, while traders on Kalshi price in real-time reactions to news, earnings reports, and market volatility. This can lead to divergence, especially around key events or surprises. Monitoring both sources provides a fuller picture: analysts offer depth, while this market captures short-term market consensus as it evolves toward Aug 14, 2026.
This market resolves around Aug 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will see the final result posted automatically after official sources confirm the Nasdaq-100 price range for that specific date and time.
Several signals could shift this market as Aug 14, 2026 approaches. Key earnings reports from major Nasdaq-100 constituents, especially tech leaders, can cause rapid re-pricing. Macro events such as Federal Reserve policy updates, inflation data releases, or geopolitical developments also influence broader market sentiment. Additionally, sector-specific news—like regulatory changes affecting AI or biotech firms—may impact the index’s direction. Traders on Kalshi will react to each new data point, so volatility around these events could move odds significantly before resolution.