TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 16, 4:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the Nasdaq-100 index value at the close of trading on June 16, 2026. Traders can bet on whether the index will close above various price thresholds, ranging from 26,600 to 32,500. The market resolves based on the official end-of-day index value.
The market resolves based on the end-of-day Nasdaq-100 index value on June 16, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold; if the index closes above that threshold (e.g., above 26,599.99 for the 26,600 strike), the corresponding market resolves to Yes. The market closes on June 16, 2026 and expires at the sooner of the first data release or one week after that date. Per the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader conviction backed by financial stakes. While equity analysts publish price targets based on fundamental research and models, this market reflects dynamic crowd expectations updated continuously as new information emerges. Traders betting real capital tend to react faster to earnings surprises, macroeconomic shifts, and Fed policy changes, sometimes leading prediction markets to signal directional moves before consensus analyst revisions catch up.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where buyers and sellers post bids and offers on specific price levels for the Nasdaq-100 close. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders compete to fill orders at their preferred odds, and the last-traded price reflects the most recent consensus between a buyer and seller. Liquidity and trading volume determine how tightly prices cluster around fair value, with wider spreads typical during low-activity periods.
This market resolves around Jun 16, 2026, once the Nasdaq-100 closing price for that date and time is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the official index level published by Nasdaq at 4 p.m. EDT on June 16, 2026. Traders holding positions aligned with the actual close receive payouts, while those on the wrong side of the move lose their stake.
Major catalysts for this market include Federal Reserve policy announcements, corporate earnings reports from mega-cap tech firms, inflation data, and geopolitical developments affecting risk sentiment. Unexpected economic reports, central bank guidance shifts, or significant M&A activity in the technology sector can trigger sharp repricing. Market-wide corrections, changes in interest rate expectations, and earnings surprises from index heavyweights like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia will likely drive the largest intraday swings closer to the resolution date.