TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Sam Forstag wins
- Kalshi
Sam Forstag wins - Kalshi
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Resolved Jul 2, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 2, 11:24 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
A candidate will compete in the 2026 Montana congressional Democratic primary, with the outcome determined by the margin of victory achieved by that candidate or a competing candidate in the race.
Kalshi
Margin of victory is calculated differently based on the margin type specified. For percentage points, the margin equals the winner's vote percentage minus the runner-up's vote percentage; if the candidate loses, it is their percentage minus the leader's percentage. For raw votes, the margin is the candidate's total votes minus the runner-up's total votes (or the leader's if they lose). For electoral votes, the margin is the candidate's electoral votes minus the second-place finisher's (or first-place if they lose). Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound; no rounding is applied. If a candidate wins, the margin is positive; if they lose, it is negative; if they tie for first, the margin is zero. For uncontested races where the candidate is the only participant, the margin is 100 percentage points or total votes cast. Votes for the same person listed multiple times or under multiple parties are summed together.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because markets incorporate real-money incentives and continuous price discovery. While polls capture voter sentiment at a single point in time, prediction markets aggregate trader expectations about the final Democratic primary margin outcome. Markets may price in late-breaking campaign developments, donor momentum, or endorsement effects faster than polls update. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are more or less confident than pollsters in a particular margin outcome.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, MT-01 Democratic primary margin of victory is priced as a binary or multi-outcome contract reflecting the expected margin between the winning candidate and the runner-up. Traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different margin ranges or specific outcomes, with prices ranging from 0 to 100 cents per share. The current market price reflects the collective belief of active traders about which margin outcome is most likely. Volume and liquidity on Kalshi determine how easily you can enter or exit positions at competitive prices.
The MT-01 Democratic primary margin of victory market resolves on Jun 2, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official final vote tally from the Democratic primary election, specifically the percentage-point difference between the top two finishers. Once results are certified and the margin is confirmed, the market settles according to which outcome bracket or specific margin prediction was correct. Traders holding winning shares receive their payout based on the final verified margin.
Major campaign events—debate performances, candidate withdrawals, endorsement announcements, and fundraising reports—can shift market odds for the Democratic primary margin. Polling releases showing momentum changes or demographic shifts will likely trigger repricing. Media coverage of gaffes, scandals, or strategic pivots may accelerate margin expectations. Voter turnout patterns, early voting data, and ground-game reports in key regions can also move prices. As election day approaches, final polls and exit-poll leaks typically drive the most volatile price movements.
