TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 3, 10:34 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of Mountain Dew sales in August 2026 compared to the same month in the previous year. It uses a specific measurement index to determine whether sales growth meets or exceeds various negative percentage thresholds. The outcome is based on reported data from a consumer panel that tracks in-store and online purchases.
The event evaluates whether the Carbon Arc Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth index for August 2026 exceeds sequentially less negative year-over-year thresholds, resolving each market to Yes if the reported value is above the respective threshold. All markets use the first value reported by Carbon Arc, with any subsequent corrections or revisions disregarded for settlement purposes. The index, derived from a point-of-sale receipt panel that captures in-store and online purchases through receipt-scanning and rewards apps, measures sales changes relative to the same period in the prior year, where 100 indicates no change, values above 100 indicate growth, and values below 100 indicate decline. Kalshi clarifies it has no official affiliation with the underlying company, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced assessment of conditions impacting Mountain Dew sales. While analysts may incorporate extensive historical data and broad market trends, traders on Kalshi adjust positions rapidly in response to short-term news, sales data snapshots, and consumer sentiment indicators, potentially creating divergence from consensus estimates.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the sales growth figure for Mountain Dew in August is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will match officially reported financial data against the market’s defined categories, closing all positions based on the confirmed result.
Key signals that could shift this market include early retail sales reports, promotional announcements from Mountain Dew, consumer confidence surveys, and broader beverage industry trends. Any unexpected news around distribution deals, marketing campaigns, or competitor activity may also cause rapid price adjustments as traders reassess the likely growth outcome before Sep 14, 2026.