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$290,393,159

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2,984,640,614

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$1,944,100,805

420,493

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Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 6, 2026 (Vercel)
kalshi

What will Moonshot AI's share be?

Volume:
$19,706

Above 2.7%

 - Kalshi

Above 2.7% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 7, 2026

Closed: Oct 6, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 2.7%

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,023
N/A
N/A
$2,675
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.8%

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,694
N/A
N/A
$2,564
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 8.9%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,054
N/A
N/A
$2,054
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.8%

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,029
N/A
N/A
$2,029
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 10.6%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,996
N/A
N/A
$1,996
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 12.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,800
N/A
N/A
$1,800
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 13.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,800
N/A
N/A
$1,800
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 15.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,700
N/A
N/A
$1,700
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.1%

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,610
N/A
N/A
$1,605
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the proportion of AI development resources allocated to Moonshot AI through the Vercel platform on a specific date. It reflects potential trends in how leading research institutions prioritize different AI tools and services in their computational workflows. The outcome depends on measured usage statistics reported after the evaluation period.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the Moonshot AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs for October 6, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold, ranging from 2.7% to 17.1%, with the market settling as 'Yes' if the measured percentage exceeds the respective threshold. The share is calculated and rounded to one decimal place. Kalshi will determine the final value using an updated chart at 10:00 AM ET on October 7, 2026. All markets operate independently, meaning each threshold is evaluated separately against the same underlying data point. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with Vercel, and all related trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Moonshot AI spending market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $16,955 and the total volume for this market is $19,706. You can see how the perceived probability of different spending levels changes over time through the price chart and observe trader activity with the volume indicators. This provides a real-time view of where the crowd believes Moonshot AI’s spend will land on October 6, 2026.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions in this market to specific analyst forecasts, as those vary widely and are often qualitative. However, the implied probability from this market offers a data-driven perspective on the potential share of spend for Moonshot AI. If analyst expectations lean heavily towards a particular outcome, we might see a corresponding concentration of volume on Kalshi reflecting that sentiment. Discrepancies between the market price and prevailing analyst views could signal opportunities for informed traders.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for Moonshot AI’s share of spend. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the event approaches. Traders are essentially betting on their belief of what the final outcome will be, and those beliefs are aggregated into the current market price.

This market resolves around Oct 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on Vercel’s publicly reported data regarding Moonshot AI’s share of spend as of October 6, 2026. The specific share of spend will be verified against credible public sources to determine the winning contract. Traders will then be paid out based on the final outcome and their positions in the market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from Vercel or Moonshot AI regarding their partnership, changes in the overall AI investment landscape, or significant technological breakthroughs in AI could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected economic conditions or shifts in venture capital funding trends could also play a role. Any news impacting the perceived growth potential or strategic importance of Moonshot AI is likely to influence trading activity and move the market price before Oct 7, 2026.