TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

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40,178

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4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Science and Technology
Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 10, 2026 (Vercel)
kalshi

What will Moonshot AI's share be?

Volume:
$21,572

Above 3.1%

 - Kalshi

Above 3.1% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 11, 2026

Closed: Oct 10, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 3.1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,894
N/A
N/A
$3,694
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.0%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,877
N/A
N/A
$2,877
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.5%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,831
N/A
N/A
$2,831
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 10.3%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,232
N/A
N/A
$2,232
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 8.7%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,058
N/A
N/A
$2,058
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 11.3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,032
N/A
N/A
$2,032
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 13.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,451
N/A
N/A
$2,451
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,650
N/A
N/A
$1,650
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 15.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,547
N/A
N/A
$1,547
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the proportion of AI development resources allocated to Moonshot AI through the Vercel platform by leading research institutions on a specific date. It reflects potential trends in how AI projects are executed and supported, offering insight into the evolving landscape of artificial intelligence development and infrastructure usage.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether the Moonshot AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across leading research labs reaches or exceeds specified thresholds on October 10, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct percentage benchmark, ranging from 3.1% to 17.2%. Resolution depends on the verified spend distribution, rounded to one decimal place, as recorded and published by Kalshi at 10:00 AM ET on October 11, 2026. All markets share identical measurement methodology and data source, with no official affiliation between Kalshi and Vercel, and all brand names remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Moonshot AI spending market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $19,298 and the total volume is $21,572. You can see how the implied probability of different spending levels for Moonshot AI has changed over time through the price charts. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on the future share of spend for this AI company, offering insights into market sentiment.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions from this market to specific analyst forecasts regarding Moonshot AI's spending. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or analyst reports. This can lead to differences in predicted outcomes, as the market reflects the collective judgment of many participants, rather than the opinion of a single source. Examining the difference between this market’s implied probabilities and expert opinions can reveal valuable insights into market confidence and potential blind spots.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for Moonshot AI's share of spend. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more trades occur, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new data and provide a continuously updated forecast.

This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on Vercel’s reported spend on Moonshot AI as of October 10, 2026. The final price of the contracts will reflect the actual percentage of spend allocated to Moonshot AI, as determined by this publicly available data. Traders will then be paid out based on the difference between their contract price and the final resolved value.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from Vercel regarding their AI strategy, substantial funding rounds for Moonshot AI, or the release of groundbreaking new AI technologies could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected economic conditions or changes in the competitive landscape for AI development could also play a role. Any news that alters perceptions of Moonshot AI’s potential or Vercel’s investment priorities is likely to cause movement in the market leading up to Oct 11, 2026.