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Science and Technology
Moonshot AI share of spend on Nov 4, 2026 (Vercel)
kalshi

What will Moonshot AI's share of spend be?

Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$98
Volume 24h:
$39N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$98
66%

Above 4.4%

 - Kalshi

Above 4.4% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:12h:00m

Moonshot AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 4.4%

74%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 79¢ buys you 127 shares | Odds: 74% Total Payout: $127 | Net Profit: $27 Multiplier: 1.27x | ROI: 27% APY not meaningful 2 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 4.4%

Trade
74%
Yes 79¢No 36¢
15¢
N/A
$12
0%
N/A
$12
2d 12h
Active
kalshi

Above 5.6%

Trade
61%
3%
Yes 81¢No 61¢
42¢
N/A
$38
111%
N/A
$38
2d 12h
Active
kalshi

Above 6.4%

Trade
61%
Yes 58¢No 52¢
10¢
N/A
$12
0%
N/A
$12
2d 12h
Active
kalshi

Above 6.9%

Trade
54%
Yes 51¢No 67¢
18¢
N/A
$17
0%
N/A
$17
2d 12h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.3%

Trade
46%
Yes 49¢No 69¢
18¢
N/A
$19
0%
N/A
$19
2d 12h
Active
kalshi

Above 7.9%

Trade
N/A
N/A
37¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 12h
Active
kalshi

Above 8.8%

Trade
N/A
N/A
20¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 12h
Active
kalshi

Above 10.2%

Trade
N/A
N/A
15¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 12h
Active
kalshi

Above 13.7%

Trade
N/A
N/A
16¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 12h
Active
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the potential adoption and financial commitment to Moonshot AI through Vercel within leading AI research institutions. It focuses on measuring how much of the collective AI development spending is allocated to this specific AI model provider on a given date, reflecting broader trends in AI infrastructure preferences among top labs.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the Moonshot AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs on November 4, 2026, rounded to one decimal place. Kalshi will determine the outcome at 10:00 AM ET on November 5, 2026, using the updated chart value for that date. Each market has a specific threshold: if the measured share exceeds the threshold (ranging from 4.4% to 13.7%), the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets operate independently, and Kalshi clarifies it holds no official affiliation with Vercel. Trademarks and brand names referenced belong to their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Moonshot AI spending market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for Moonshot AI's share of spend with Vercel on November 4, 2026. You'll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $39. The total volume traded on this market is $98. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and see how actively traders are participating in predicting the future share of spend.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Moonshot AI’s spending. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse opinions and can reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, potentially offering a different perspective than individual analyst reports. If analysts generally believe Moonshot AI will have a significant share of spend, we might see the odds for that outcome increase in this market. Conversely, skepticism from analysts could lead to lower probabilities for those scenarios. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming your own view.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective probability assessment of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust to reflect changing expectations about Moonshot AI's share of spend with Vercel. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on market sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the verified share of spend by Moonshot AI with Vercel, as reported by Vercel. The specific percentage will determine which outcome pays out, and all qualifying contracts will be settled accordingly. Traders should monitor news sources and official announcements from Vercel leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential developments that could influence the outcome of this market.

Several factors could significantly impact the Moonshot AI spending market. Major announcements from Moonshot AI regarding their partnerships or technology roadmap could shift expectations. News about Vercel’s overall AI Gateway spend or changes in their strategic direction would also be influential. Broader trends in the AI industry, such as funding rounds for competing AI labs or breakthroughs in AI research, could indirectly affect the market. Any significant shifts in the competitive landscape or regulatory changes related to AI spending could also drive price movements in this market.