TOTAL VOLUME:

$138.4b

24H VOL:

$100,175,802

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,495,670,182

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,527,723,987

458,854

Markets across

34,821

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,814

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Montana Senate Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Montana Senate election?

Total volume:
$830,638
Volume 24h:
$2,414
29%
Liquidity:
$179,073
12%
Open interest:
$382,464
0.22%

Republican party

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 4, 2027

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Montana?

94%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 94¢ buys you 106 shares | Odds: 94% Total Payout: $106 | Net Profit: $6 Multiplier: 1.06x | ROI: 6% | APY: 29% 88 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
94%
1%
Yes 94¢No 7.2¢
1.2¢
N/A
$262,271
0.49%
17%
$128,489
2mo 4w
active
polymarket

Republican

Trade
92%
Yes 92¢No 9¢
1¢
$60,255
$86,817
0.12%
18%
N/A
3w 5d 14h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
93.4%
Yes 93¢No 8.1¢
Avg: 1.1¢Max: 1.2¢
polymarket

Independent

Trade
7%
Yes 7.3¢No 93.9¢
1.2¢
$72,537
$25,016
0%
4%
N/A
3w 5d 14h
active
kalshi

Seth Bodnar

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 95.2¢
0.2¢
N/A
$237,928
0.24%
2%
$120,816
2mo 4w
active
kalshi

Democratic party

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.2¢
0.1¢
N/A
$171,758
0%
4%
$133,159
2mo 4w
active
polymarket

Democrat

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.5¢
0.4¢
$46,282
$46,848
1%
10%
N/A
3w 5d 14h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.9%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 0.3¢Max: 0.4¢
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 Montana U.S. Senate election, forecasting which party will win the race. Currently, the consensus probability estimates a 92.5% chance that Republicans will win the Senate race in Montana, aggregating views from Polymarket and Kalshi. Resolution will be determined by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC calling the race for the same candidate, or by official certification. Traders should watch for the results of the election on or around the resolution date estimate of January 4, 2027, to see which party secures the Senate seat.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi resolves on swearing-in, while Polymarket resolves on media calls or official certification, creating a potential timing and outcome discrepancy.Hero tip: Consider the potential for legal challenges or delays in the swearing-in process when trading on Kalshi. Polymarket offers a faster resolution based on established media practices.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on media consensus (AP, Fox, NBC) or official certification of the election results, focusing on party affiliation of the winner. Key Quote: "This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification."
  • Kalshi: Resolves only when the winning candidate is officially sworn into office as a Senator, focusing on party representation or independent status. Key Quote: "If Seth Bodnar (as an Independent) is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Kalshi

The Montana Senate election in 2026 determines which party or independent candidate will hold the seat for the term beginning in 2027. Resolution occurs when a representative of the Republican party, Democratic party, or the Independent party is sworn in as Senator of Montana for that term.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the Montana Senate election from multiple platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi. It provides a consensus view of the likely outcome, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders. Currently, the aggregated volume across these platforms is $830,638, with $2,414 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard tracks the probability of various outcomes, offering a dynamic assessment of the race as new information becomes available. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of expectations surrounding the Montana Senate election.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on an outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when considering factors like voter turnout or late-breaking events. Prediction markets tend to incorporate a wider range of information, including polling data, fundraising numbers, and expert analysis, resulting in a more nuanced forecast. It’s important to consider both sources of information when evaluating the Montana Senate election.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Differences in user base, trading fees, and market-specific rules can all contribute to price discrepancies. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, differing liquidity levels on each platform can impact price discovery. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Republicans win the Senate race in Montana? at 91.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Republicans win the Senate race in Montana? at 94.0%. These variations highlight the dynamic nature of prediction markets and the importance of considering multiple sources of information when assessing the Montana Senate election.

This market resolves around Jan 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the Montana Senate election, as declared by official election results, will determine the outcome. The resolution will be based on the candidate who receives the most votes and is certified as the winner by the relevant election authorities. This market provides a way to forecast the result of this important election before the official results are known.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Jan 4, 2027. Major endorsements, significant fundraising announcements, and unexpected candidate gaffes could all shift trader sentiment. Changes in national political trends or economic conditions could also influence the perceived likelihood of different outcomes in the Montana Senate election. Furthermore, the release of new polling data, particularly if it deviates substantially from current expectations, could lead to substantial price movements. Any event that alters the perceived probability of a candidate's success has the potential to move this market.