TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
polymarket

MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Volume:
$634,632

Wesley Bell

 - Polymarket

Wesley Bell - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 5, 2026

Closed: Aug 5, 12:15 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Wesley Bell

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$292,081
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Cori Bush

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$342,550
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate F

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate H

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate J

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate M

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate O

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate L

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate N

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate E

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate G

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate I

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate K

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks whether Wesley Bell will be the Democratic nominee for Missouri's 1st congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections, as determined on Polymarket using official Democratic Party sources for resolution. The current probability that Wesley Bell will secure the nomination stands at 67.5%, while Cori Bush has a 33.5% chance. The outcome will be decided during the Democratic primary scheduled for August 4, 2026.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Frequently asked questions

The MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and price movements for the Democratic primary race in Missouri's 1st congressional district. You can monitor the current probability of each candidate winning the nomination, view 24-hour trading volume of $317,095, and observe historical price trends as the primary approaches. The dashboard displays total group volume of $634,627, giving you a complete snapshot of market activity and trader conviction around each outcome.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from traditional polling because traders stake real money on outcomes, creating different incentive structures than survey respondents face. While polls capture voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate ongoing information and trader expectations about turnout, campaign momentum, and late-breaking developments. Comparing market odds to recent polls can reveal whether traders are pricing in factors polls may lag on, or whether consensus between the two methods suggests higher confidence in a particular outcome.

The MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner market resolves on Aug 4, 2026, following the official Democratic primary election date for Missouri's 1st congressional district. Resolution is determined by the official primary results announced by Missouri election authorities. Once the Democratic nominee is certified, the market settles based on which candidate receives the most votes in the primary contest. Traders holding shares in the winning candidate's outcome receive their payout.

Key catalysts include candidate endorsements from party leaders or local figures, debate performances, fundraising announcements, and media coverage shifts. Polling releases closer to the primary date often trigger significant price moves as traders update their expectations. Campaign events, candidate gaffes or scandals, and changes in voter turnout models can also influence odds. As Aug 4, 2026 approaches, late-breaking news and early voting data typically drive increased market activity and volatility in candidate probabilities.