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402,751

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MO-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?
kalshi

MO-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?

Volume:
$15,880

Wesley Bell, ≥15%

 - Kalshi

Wesley Bell, ≥15% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 26, 2026

Closed: Aug 26, 12:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Wesley Bell, ≥15%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,280
N/A
N/A
$2,610
10mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Cori Bush, 0-3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,433
N/A
N/A
$1,828
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Wesley Bell, 0-3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,020
N/A
N/A
$1,699
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Wesley Bell, 6-9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,691
N/A
N/A
$1,344
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Wesley Bell, 9-12%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,520
N/A
N/A
$1,165
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Wesley Bell, 3-6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,032
N/A
N/A
$812
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Wesley Bell, 12-15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$973
N/A
N/A
$948
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Cori Bush, 6-9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$662
N/A
N/A
$561
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Cori Bush, ≥15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$652
N/A
N/A
$602
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Cori Bush, 3-6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$368
N/A
N/A
$363
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Cori Bush, 9-12%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$225
N/A
N/A
$225
10mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Cori Bush, 12-15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
10mo 1w 1d
No
Total markets: 12

Description

The event tracks the competitive dynamics of the 2026 Democratic primary in Missouri's 1st congressional district by analyzing how much one leading candidate outperforms another. It focuses on measuring the difference in voter support between two key candidates to gauge the intensity of their contest.

Kalshi

The event evaluates the margin of victory for either Cori Bush or Wesley Bell in the 2026 MO-01 Democratic primary, with separate markets for each candidate across six distinct margin ranges. For Cori Bush, markets cover ranges from 0-3%, 3-6%, 6-9%, 9-12%, 12-15%, and ≥15%. An identical structure applies for Wesley Bell. The margin of victory is calculated as the difference in vote share between the candidate and their nearest rival—if the candidate wins, the margin is positive; if they lose, it is negative; and a tie results in a zero margin. Each range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, with no rounding applied to percentages. Votes for a candidate running under multiple parties or listings are aggregated. The market resolves to 'Yes' only if the calculated margin falls precisely within the specified range for the relevant candidate.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for short_topic shows real-time odds, price trends, and 24-hour volume on Kalshi. It reflects trader expectations for the vote margin in the upcoming primary, updated continuously as new bets are placed. You can monitor how market sentiment shifts over time, view total volume of $15,880, and see daily fluctuations through $0.

While polls give a snapshot of voter preferences, this market incorporates real-money bets that adjust for factors like campaign momentum, fundraising news, and voter turnout models. Traders may price in different dynamics than traditional surveys, often leading to tighter or wider margins depending on recent events. Comparing poll averages with this market can highlight where quantitative models diverge from public opinion trends.

This market resolves around Aug 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final margin of victory will be calculated from official election results, and this market will settle accordingly based on those verified numbers.