TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
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OPEN INTEREST:
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400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
61%
John Nagel
- Kalshi
John Nagel - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 12, 12:44 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks which candidate will secure the Republican Party nomination for the U.S. House of Representatives in Minnesota's 5th congressional district for the 2026 election cycle. It focuses on the competitive primary process within the party, reflecting voter preferences and strategic endorsements that determine the party's official candidate for the general election.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes if either Dalia Al-Aqidi or John Nagel wins the Republican Party nomination for Minnesota's 5th congressional district in the 2026 primary elections. The outcome depends solely on the party's nomination results, with no additional conditions or secondary factors influencing the resolution. This structure ensures the market reflects the success of either listed candidate in becoming the party's endorsed contender for the general election.
Frequently asked questions
While polls offer snapshots of voter preferences, this market reflects trader expectations shaped by fundraising, endorsements, and campaign performance. Prediction market odds can diverge from polling averages when traders price in factors beyond public opinion, such as candidate viability, debate performances, or emerging controversies that may not yet appear in polls.
This market resolves around Aug 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the primary election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning candidate will be the one officially declared by the Minnesota Republican Party or relevant electoral authorities as the nominee for MN-05.
Key events that could shift this market include debate performances, major endorsements, fundraising announcements, scandals or gaffes by candidates, and shifts in polling data. Any development that changes perceptions of a candidate’s electability or grassroots support may cause traders to adjust their bets, moving odds in response to new information as the primary approaches.
