TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
MN-05 House Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the MN-05 House election?

Total volume:
$254,321
Volume 24h:
$70,262
25%
Liquidity:
$109,373
49%
Open interest:
$154,929
69%

Democratic Party

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 4, 2027

Time left: 20d:00h:24m

Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat?

95%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 94.9¢ buys you 105 shares | Odds: 95% Total Payout: $105 | Net Profit: $5 Multiplier: 1.05x | ROI: 5% | APY: 160% 20 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Democratic Party

Trade
95%
Yes 94.9¢No 5.8¢
0.7¢
$55,525
$35,860
7%
40%
N/A
2w 6d
active
kalshi

Democratic party

Trade
93%
Yes 93.5¢No 6.7¢
0.2¢
N/A
$138,618
54%
1,033%
$116,371
2mo 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
93.6%
Yes 94.2¢No 6.3¢
Avg: 0.5¢Max: 0.7¢
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
7%
1%
Yes 6.9¢No 93.9¢
0.8¢
N/A
$40,040
68%
355%
$34,957
2mo 3w
active
polymarket

Republican Party

Trade
5%
1%
Yes 6¢No 96.8¢
2.8¢
$53,848
$36,101
3%
10%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5.8%
Yes 6.5¢No 95.4¢
Avg: 1.8¢Max: 2.8¢
kalshi

DeVelle Jackson

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$3,702
139%
N/A
$3,601
2mo 3w
active
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group concerns the outcome of the 2026 election for the U.S. House of Representatives in Minnesota's 5th congressional district. Markets exist on which party will win, and on specific candidates winning. Resolution will depend on official election results or, in cases of ambiguity, reporting from credible sources.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on the same core event: who wins the MN-05 House seat in the 2026 election.Primary resolution logic: United States Federal Election Commission (FEC)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the party or candidate officially declared the winner of the MN-05 House seat.
  • If a candidate lacks a clear party affiliation, their stated intent to caucus will determine their party for resolution purposes.
  • Credible reporting will be used to determine the winner, with the FEC serving as the final authority in cases of ambiguity.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: In the extremely unlikely event of a tie, official recounts and legal challenges will be followed until a winner is definitively declared by the FEC.
  • Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws before the election, markets on that candidate will likely resolve to 0, but the overall election market (party winner) will continue as normal.
Timing: Resolution will occur after the official results of the 2026 House elections are certified by the FEC, expected in late 2026/early 2027.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the party affiliation of the House member sworn in for MN-05 for the term beginning in 2027. The market may resolve through accelerated determination following a consensus projection by major media organizations.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probability of different outcomes in the MN-05 House election. It aggregates data from these prediction markets to provide a consensus view of who is likely to win. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms is $254,185, with $69,672 traded in the last 24 hours. This indicates significant interest in forecasting the results of this race. The markets reflect real-time predictions made by traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the election's outcome.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of current voter sentiment, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating a wider range of information and anticipating potential shifts in voter behavior. The difference between prediction market probabilities and polling data can sometimes be significant, particularly in closely contested races. This market provides a continuously updated forecast, adjusting as new information becomes available, unlike polls which are static at the time of collection.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base, trading volume, and liquidity, which can influence price discovery. Additionally, differing market designs and fee structures may contribute to discrepancies. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat? at 94.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat? at 93.3%. These differences highlight the dynamic nature of prediction markets and the varying interpretations of available information among traders on each platform.

This market resolves around Jan 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning candidate in the MN-05 House election, as declared by official election results, will determine the outcome. Traders will have until the resolution time to adjust their positions based on the latest information. The final price will reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd and provide a forecast of the election's result.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, campaign finance reports, debates, and breaking news events related to the candidates could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected economic data or national political trends could also influence predictions. Polling data releases, while often lagging indicators, can still cause short-term price fluctuations. Any event that alters perceptions of a candidate's likelihood of winning the MN-05 House election has the potential to move this market.