TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Mistral market share this week
kalshi

What is Mistral's market share this week?

Volume:
$3,547

Above 2.0%

 - Kalshi

Above 2.0% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Sep 27, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 2.0%

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,547
N/A
N/A
$3,547
5d 11h 7m
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.3%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 11h 7m
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.4%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 11h 7m
No
kalshi

Above 2.5%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 11h 7m
No
kalshi

Above 2.6%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 11h 7m
No
kalshi

Above 2.7%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 11h 7m
No
kalshi

Above 2.8%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 11h 7m
No
kalshi

Above 2.9%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 11h 7m
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This event tracks the weekly usage performance of the Mistral AI model within a specific platform's ecosystem. The outcome depends on whether Mistral's measured adoption rate surpasses various incremental thresholds during the defined period. Results are determined by independently verified analytics reports.

Kalshi

All markets in this event resolve based on OpenRouter's officially reported text market share values for model authors during the week of September 21, 2026, measured and published at 10:00 AM ET on the following Monday. Each market has a distinct threshold (ranging from 2.0% to 2.9%) that, if exceeded by Mistral's weekly market share — reported rounded to one decimal place — will result in a "Yes" resolution for that specific market. If Mistral's market share is not separately identified in the source data (e.g., grouped under a general "Others" category), all markets within this event automatically resolve to "No." Kalshi explicitly disclaims any formal association with OpenRouter or the governing benchmark, and all referenced trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Mistral market share tracks the current odds of various outcomes related to its percentage of the large language model market. You'll find a price history chart showing how expectations have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $3,547. Total volume for this market is $3,547. The dashboard also indicates the most likely outcome according to traders on Kalshi.

Currently, it's important to note that there is limited publicly available data comparing prediction market prices to analyst forecasts for the Mistral market share. However, this market provides a unique view of collective intelligence, reflecting what a diverse group of traders believes will happen. If analyst predictions suggest a different outcome than what’s priced into this market, it could present an opportunity for informed traders to capitalize on discrepancies in expectations.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential Mistral market share outcomes, and the price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand – if more traders believe Mistral’s share will increase, they’ll bid up the price of contracts reflecting that outcome, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the latest information and collective judgment.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a determination of Mistral's actual market share during the specified period, as measured by a reputable source of market data. The precise methodology for determining the outcome will be outlined in the market's documentation on Kalshi, but it will focus on establishing a verifiable and objective assessment of Mistral’s position.

Several factors could significantly influence the Mistral market share and, consequently, move this market. Major announcements from Mistral regarding new product releases, partnerships, or technological advancements would be key catalysts. Competitive pressures from other large language model providers, such as OpenAI or Google, could also shift expectations. Broader economic trends affecting the AI industry, or changes in regulatory landscapes surrounding AI development, could also play a role in how this market evolves before Oct 5, 2026.