TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Missouri: U.S. House nominee method
kalshi

How will Missouri choose its U.S. House nominees?

Volume:
$5,248

August winners carry over

 - Kalshi

August winners carry over - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 16, 2026

Closed: Sep 16, 12:55 PM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

August winners carry over

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$904
N/A
N/A
$504
1mo 1w 4d
Yes
kalshi

Parties choose nominees

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,344
N/A
N/A
$2,341
1mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

New primaries

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 4d
No
kalshi

No single listed method

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 4d
No
Total markets: 4

Description

This event tracks how Missouri selects its U.S. House nominees for the 2026 election, focusing on the method used to finalize candidates before November 3, 2026. The outcome depends on whether nominees are chosen through party committees, carried over from August primaries, new primaries under a restored map, or through mixed or unnamed methods.

Kalshi

The event evaluates Missouri's method for officially determining all Democratic and Republican nominees for its eight U.S. House districts before November 3, 2026. Four potential methods are considered: party committee selections, carrying over August primary winners, conducting new primaries under the restored 2022 map, or using mixed or unnamed methods. For any method to qualify, it must be the first official, statewide-complete determination reported after September 3, 2026, by a designated Source Agency. Partial proposals, inconsistent methods across parties or districts, or methods not explicitly listed will result in a 'No' outcome for all markets. If Missouri schedules November 3 jungle primaries under the restored map, the 'New primaries' market resolves to 'Yes'. Once a qualifying method is confirmed, the event settles immediately, and subsequent judicial or administrative changes do not affect the outcome. If no qualifying determination is reported by the cutoff, all markets resolve to 'No'.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Missouri House nomination market tracks the current odds of various outcomes, allowing traders to see which candidates are favored to win the nomination. It also displays a price history chart, showing how the odds have changed over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $843. The total volume traded in this market is $5,248. This information helps participants analyze market sentiment and make informed trading decisions regarding the upcoming nomination.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different assessment than traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of stated voter intentions, this market aggregates real-money wagers, potentially revealing more about what voters will actually do. Discrepancies can arise from factors like strategic voting, voter turnout assumptions, and the ability of traders to incorporate information not captured in polls. It’s important to remember that both polls and prediction markets have limitations, and neither is a perfect predictor of the final result.

This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official results announced by the relevant election authorities regarding the Missouri House nomination. The candidate who receives the most votes in the primary election will be considered the winner of this market. Traders should monitor news sources for official announcements as the resolution date approaches.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major endorsements from influential figures, shifts in fundraising totals, and the release of new polling data are all likely to impact trading activity. Unexpected events, such as candidate controversies or changes in the political landscape, could also cause substantial price fluctuations. Furthermore, any news regarding voter turnout projections or strategic campaign decisions could influence how traders assess the probabilities of different outcomes in this market.