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Minnesota Republican Senate primary: Michele Tafoya vote percent
kalshi

What will be Michele Tafoya's vote percent in the Minnesota Republican Senate primary?

Volume:
$12,239

At least 50%

 - Kalshi

At least 50% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 19, 2026

Closed: Aug 19, 10:40 AM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 50%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,550
N/A
N/A
$1,857
10mo 2w 1d
Yes
kalshi

At least 40%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,551
N/A
N/A
$1,551
10mo 2w 1d
Yes
kalshi

At least 45%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$916
N/A
N/A
$905
10mo 2w 1d
Yes
kalshi

At least 55%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,543
N/A
N/A
$2,213
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 60%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,515
N/A
N/A
$2,097
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 75%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$817
N/A
N/A
$817
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 65%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$691
N/A
N/A
$435
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 70%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$656
N/A
N/A
$656
10mo 2w 1d
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This market tracks the potential voting support for Michele Tafoya in the 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate primary. It measures whether her vote share reaches various thresholds, reflecting her competitive position among Republican voters. The outcome depends on certified election results, ensuring accuracy and finality.

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Michele Tafoya in the 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate primary. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if her vote share falls within the specified range for each market (e.g., 40%–100%, 45%–100%, etc.). The percentage is calculated by dividing the total valid votes she receives by the total valid votes cast, multiplied by 100 and rounded appropriately. Only certified or official results are considered; preliminary figures, write-in votes (if certified), and invalid/spoiled ballots are excluded. If the election is canceled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by the expiration date, all markets resolve to 'No'. Recounts that adjust the certified percentage before expiration use the most recent certified figure. Multiple voting rounds, such as ranked-choice voting, use the specified round or the first round if unspecified.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders continuously submit bids and asks that determine the current implied probability for each possible vote percent outcome. The platform’s order book adjusts prices based on supply and demand, with liquidity levels affecting how tightly packed the odds are across different vote share brackets. Market depth and recent trading volume influence price stability.

This market resolves around Aug 11, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official primary results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote percentage will be compared against market outcomes at that time, closing all positions based on the certified tallies.

Key events such as candidate debates, endorsements, scandals, or shifts in campaign fundraising could move this market. Economic announcements, national political trends, and local voter turnout efforts also influence trader sentiment. As Aug 11, 2027 approaches, any release of reliable polling data or changes in candidate viability will likely cause rapid price adjustments among participants.