TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 41%
- Kalshi
At least 41% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 19, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 19, 10:41 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks Lisa Demuth's performance in the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary, focusing on whether she achieves specific vote percentage thresholds. The outcome depends on her final certified vote share against all valid votes cast in that primary election.
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on the certified percentage of votes Lisa Demuth receives in the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary, compared against multiple sequential thresholds from 29% to 50%. Each market has a distinct threshold range, and if her certified vote percentage falls within any given range at the time of resolution, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. The vote percentage is calculated by dividing the total valid votes she receives by the total valid votes cast in the primary, multiplied by 100 and rounded appropriately. Only certified or official results count—preliminary figures are irrelevant. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results, while invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. If the election involves multiple rounds (such as ranked-choice voting), the percentage is determined based on the specified round or the first round if unspecified. Markets resolve to No if the election is canceled, postponed beyond the market expiration date, or if no certified results are available by the market's expiration. Additionally, if a recount occurs before expiration and alters the certified percentage, the most recent certified figure is used for resolution.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous trading where participants buy and sell contracts based on their expectations for the vote percentage. The current top outcome reflects the aggregate trader sentiment, with the chance percentage indicating the implied probability. Volume and price action adjust dynamically as new information emerges, influencing the market’s direction and liquidity on this venue.
This market resolves around Aug 11, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote percentage will be determined by official election results, and this market will settle based on those verified figures. Timing depends on when authoritative sources release the certified results post-election.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including debate performance, endorsements, scandal developments, or changes in voter registration trends. Media coverage, polling updates, and campaign financing news often influence trader sentiment. As the primary date approaches, any event that alters expectations for candidate support may cause noticeable movement in market odds and volume on Kalshi.
