TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
No change
- Kalshi
No change - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 30, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 30, 2:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks shifts in vote margins between two candidates during the certification process of a state primary election. It focuses on how official tallies change after initial counts and any subsequent recounts, reflecting the dynamics of vote verification and adjustment in a competitive race.
Kalshi
The event evaluates changes in the certified vote margin between Lisa Demuth and Mike Lindell following the final certification of the August 11, 2026 Minnesota Republican primary for Governor. The change is calculated by subtracting Demuth's initial margin over Lindell, as determined by the Minnesota State Canvassing Board on August 18, 2026, from her margin after final certification—whether following a recount or, if no recount occurs, the August 18 certification itself. A positive change indicates Demuth gained votes relative to Lindell, while a negative change indicates Lindell gained votes. All markets resolve based on raw vote differences, not percentages, and each includes both endpoints of its specified range. If no recount is conducted or if a candidate waives further recount proceedings after initial precincts, the change is deemed zero, resulting in the "No change" market resolving as Yes. The certified figures, regardless of partial recount waivers, are authoritative for all determinations.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market reflects trader sentiment on the likelihood of a margin shift, which can diverge from or align with analyst forecasts. Analysts may weigh factors like vote distribution, legal challenges, and historical recount trends. Where discrepancies exist, they often highlight uncertainty not fully captured by polls or expert opinions alone.
This market resolves around Dec 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result depends on official recount processes and any certified margin changes, which will be reflected once authoritative sources announce the updated tally.
