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Minnesota Republican Governor Primary Margin of Victory
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Minnesota Republican Governor Primary Margin of Victory

Volume:
$985

Demuth 10%+

 - Polymarket

Demuth 10%+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 25, 2026

Closed: Aug 25, 12:15 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Demuth 10%+

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$54
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lindell <5%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$244
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Demuth <5%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$244
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lindell 10–15%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$172
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lindell 25%+

0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$84
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lindell 20–25%

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$64
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lindell 15–20%

0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$64
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lindell 5–10%

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$44
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Demuth 5–10%

0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Republican Gubernatorial Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Polymarket

Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Republican Gubernatorial Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Minnesota GOP governor margin market shows real-time odds and price history on Polymarket, along with 24-hour volume of $138. It provides a snapshot of trader sentiment and betting activity specifically for this market, allowing users to monitor how the potential margin of victory evolves over time.

This market resolves around Aug 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official election results are verified against credible public sources. The exact margin of victory will be calculated from certified vote tallies, determining which side of the market — for or against a particular margin range — will pay out.

Several key signals could shift this market before Aug 11, 2026. Debate performances, endorsements from influential state figures, and developments in candidate campaigns — such as scandals or major policy announcements — may all impact trader sentiment. Additionally, shifts in polling data, especially those focusing on swing districts within Minnesota, could cause rapid price adjustments. As the primary date approaches, any final surges in voter registration or momentum from grassroots movements may also cause this market to fluctuate considerably.