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Minnesota Republican Governor primary margin of victory?
kalshi

Minnesota Republican Governor primary margin of victory?

Volume:
$49,377

Lisa Demuth, 9-12%

 - Kalshi

Lisa Demuth, 9-12% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 19, 2026

Closed: Aug 19, 10:39 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Lisa Demuth, 9-12%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,909
N/A
N/A
$6,524
10mo 2w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Lisa Demuth, ≥15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,224
N/A
N/A
$7,330
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

Lisa Demuth, 12-15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,434
N/A
N/A
$5,478
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

Lisa Demuth, 6-9%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,898
N/A
N/A
$3,219
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

Mike Lindell, ≥15%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,551
N/A
N/A
$2,011
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

Lisa Demuth, 0-3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,740
N/A
N/A
$1,813
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

Lisa Demuth, 3-6%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,198
N/A
N/A
$2,091
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

Mike Lindell, 12-15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,750
N/A
N/A
$713
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

Mike Lindell, 3-6%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,452
N/A
N/A
$1,117
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

Mike Lindell, 6-9%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,292
N/A
N/A
$1,138
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

Mike Lindell, 0-3%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,258
N/A
N/A
$750
10mo 2w 1d
No
kalshi

Mike Lindell, 9-12%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$670
N/A
N/A
$586
10mo 2w 1d
No
Total markets: 12

Description

In Minnesota’s 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, Mike Lindell and Lisa Demuth are key contenders. The markets will resolve based on their respective victory margins, which measure how much they outperform their closest rivals in vote share.

Kalshi

The markets resolve based on the margin of victory for Mike Lindell or Lisa Demuth in the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary. The margin is calculated as the difference between the candidate’s vote share and the next highest candidate’s vote share. A positive margin indicates a win, a negative margin a loss, and zero a tie. Each market segment corresponds to specific percentage ranges of the margin, from 0% to over 15%, with ranges inclusive of the lower bound and exclusive of the upper bound. Votes for the same candidate across multiple listings are summed, and no rounding is applied to the margin percentage. Separate markets exist for both Lindell and Demuth, each with their own set of margin ranges.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, this dashboard shows the real-time odds and price history for the Minnesota GOP primary margin market, along with current volume of $49,377 and 24-hour volume of $114. It provides a visual representation of how traders on Kalshi are pricing the potential margin of victory for the Republican gubernatorial nominee in Minnesota.

While polling averages offer one view of the likely outcome, this market reflects trader sentiment and betting patterns specific to the margin of victory. Currently, the implied probability on Kalshi may diverge from poll aggregates, showing either a tighter or wider expected margin based on market dynamics and trader expectations, rather than public opinion samples alone.

This market resolves around Aug 11, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final margin will be determined by official election results, and once those figures are widely reported, the market will close and pay out according to the pre-set terms.

Key events such as candidate debates, endorsements, scandals, or shifts in voter registration could significantly impact this market. Economic announcements, national political trends, and local issues gaining attention may also cause traders to adjust their expectations for the final margin of victory, leading to price fluctuations on Kalshi as Aug 11, 2027 approaches.