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Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
polymarket

What will be the margin of victory in the Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary?

Volume:
$52,182

Flanagan 15–20%

 - Polymarket

Flanagan 15–20% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 25, 2026

Closed: Aug 25, 12:07 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Flanagan 15–20%

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$19,808
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Flanagan 10–15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,047
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Flanagan <5%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,568
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Flanagan 5–10%

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,098
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Craig 5–10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,777
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Flanagan 20%+

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,854
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Craig <5%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,394
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Craig 10–15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$663
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Craig 15–20%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$489
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Craig 20%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$483
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Polymarket

Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary margin. This market measures how decisively the leading candidate will win the primary contest. Traders buy and sell shares based on their expectations of the final margin between the top finisher and the runner-up. The platform displays current odds, historical price movements, and total volume of $52,182 across all related outcomes. This data reflects the collective forecast of market participants as they react to campaign developments, polling releases, and endorsements leading up to the primary election.

Prediction markets and traditional polls often diverge because they measure different things. Polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment, while this market aggregates real-money bets from traders who face financial consequences for inaccuracy. Market odds tend to incorporate late-breaking information and shift more dynamically than poll averages. Traders may weight factors like turnout, campaign momentum, and endorsement effects differently than pollsters do. Over time, prediction markets have shown competitive or superior accuracy compared to polling averages in primary races, though both tools provide valuable signals for understanding the race.

This market resolves around Aug 11, 2026, once the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary has concluded and results are finalized. The outcome will be confirmed using credible public reporting from official election authorities and major news organizations. The winning contract will be determined by the actual margin of victory between the top two finishers in the primary. Traders who correctly predicted the margin will receive their payout based on the final verified result. Resolution typically occurs within days of the election as vote counts are certified.

Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before the primary. Major polling releases showing changes in candidate support will likely trigger immediate trading activity. Endorsements from prominent state or national figures can reshape perceptions of momentum and viability. Campaign spending announcements, debate performances, and media coverage of candidate gaffes or achievements all influence trader behavior. Turnout models and early voting data released closer to election day often prompt sharp repricing. Additionally, unexpected candidate withdrawals or last-minute campaign developments could dramatically alter expectations about the final margin. Traders continuously adjust positions as new information emerges.