TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1%
- Kalshi
Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 25, 2027
Latest in Elections
Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff in the state of Minas Gerais be at least 1%?
$
Description
This event tracks the potential electoral performance of Flávio Bolsonaro in a future Brazilian presidential runoff within the state of Minas Gerais. It focuses on measuring the difference between his vote share and that of his nearest rival, should he win or lose. Various thresholds define different levels of success or dominance in that specific regional contest.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Flávio Bolsonaro achieves specific margin-of-victory thresholds in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff within Minas Gerais. Each market corresponds to a distinct percentage threshold (≥1%, ≥4%, ≥7%, ≥10%, ≥13%, or ≥16%). The margin is calculated as the percentage of valid votes (excluding blanks and nulls) that Flávio Bolsonaro receives minus the percentage received by the runner-up if he wins, or minus the percentage of the actual winner if he loses. A tie results in a zero margin. Margins are evaluated without rounding, with each range inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. If Flávio Bolsonaro appears on the ballot under multiple party affiliations or listings, all votes for him are aggregated. The market resolves to 'Yes' only if the actual margin meets or exceeds the specified threshold for that particular market.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to draw broad conclusions about how prediction market odds compare to analyst forecasts for this election. Traditional polls and expert analyses often focus on stated preferences, while this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* on. Discrepancies can arise from factors like strategic voting, information asymmetry, or differing levels of confidence in various outcomes. It’s important to remember that both approaches offer valuable insights, but they measure different things, and this market provides a unique perspective on the potential result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by new information, shifts in sentiment, and strategic trading activity, all contributing to a dynamic and evolving prediction.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Minas Gerais runoff election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the official margin of victory reported by the relevant electoral authorities. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and how their positions are settled on Kalshi following the official announcement. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Major developments in the campaigns, such as significant endorsements or unexpected policy announcements, could shift voter sentiment. Polling data released in the lead-up to the election will also be closely watched, as will any debates or public appearances by the candidates. Unexpected economic news or national events could also influence perceptions of the candidates' chances, leading to adjustments in the market’s pricing. Any information that alters the perceived likelihood of a particular outcome has the potential to move this market.
